Essendon v North Melbourne

Sat 28 Mar 2026, 7:35pm AEDT (venue time)

FINAL HIT

OUR TIPNEW MODEL

NM by 4

NM to win, 56% chance

ESS 44%56% NM

BY HOW MUCH

No margin range published for this match.

RESULT

NM by 12

HIT Actual margin 12 · 7.7 points off our margin

MATCH MODEL Tip and margin NEW MODEL 29 Mar 2026

Player predictions

Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.

Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range

Essendon

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	70+	80+	90+	100+	110+	ACTUAL
Zach Merrett	R	104	-	-	94%	87%	74%	57%	38%	71
Darcy Parish	RR	96	-	-	89%	77%	61%	42%	25%	73
Jye Caldwell	C	94	-	-	88%	75%	58%	40%	23%	86
Archie Roberts	HBFL	88	-	-	80%	65%	46%	29%	15%	82
Andrew McGrath	BPR	86	-	-	78%	61%	43%	26%	13%	80
Sam Durham	HFFL	86	-	-	77%	60%	42%	25%	12%	45
Brayden Fiorini	WR	79	-	-	66%	48%	30%	16%	7%	0
Xavier Duursma	WL	71	-	-	51%	33%	18%	8%	3%	65
Archie Perkins	INT	64	-	-	39%	23%	11%	4%	2%	64
Kyle Langford	FPR	63	-	-	36%	20%	10%	4%	1%	86
Isaac Kako	FPL	62	-	-	35%	19%	9%	4%	1%	41
Peter Wright	FF	62	-	-	34%	19%	9%	4%	1%	77
Zach Reid	CHB	62	-	-	36%	20%	9%	4%	1%	53
Zak Johnson	INT	61	-	-	33%	18%	8%	3%	1%	32
Jaxon Prior	BPL	60	-	-	32%	17%	8%	3%	1%	87
Lachlan Blakiston	RK	60	-	-	32%	17%	8%	3%	1%	70
Jade Gresham	INT	57	-	-	28%	14%	6%	2%	1%	47
Nate Caddy	CHF	56	-	-	26%	13%	6%	2%	1%	36
Jacob Farrow	HBFR	55	-	-	24%	12%	5%	2%	0%	66
Saad El-Hawli	INT	55	-	-	24%	12%	5%	2%	0%	45
Dyson Sharp	HFFR	51	-	-	18%	8%	3%	1%	0%	-
Ben McKay	FB	49	-	-	16%	7%	3%	1%	0%	26
Archer Day-Wicks	INT	46	-	-	13%	5%	2%	0%	0%	52

North Melbourne

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	70+	80+	90+	100+	110+	ACTUAL
Harry Sheezel	R	110	-	-	97%	92%	82%	68%	49%	136
Tristan Xerri	RK	106	-	-	96%	89%	78%	62%	43%	55
Luke Davies-Uniacke	RR	98	-	-	91%	81%	65%	47%	29%	125
Caleb Daniel	CHB	88	-	-	80%	64%	46%	28%	14%	88
Luke Parker	INT	88	-	-	80%	64%	45%	28%	14%	135
Jy Simpkin	WL	85	-	-	76%	60%	41%	24%	12%	82
Tom Powell	C	82	-	-	71%	53%	34%	19%	9%	115
George Wardlaw	INT	79	-	-	67%	48%	30%	16%	7%	54
Dylan Stephens	WR	76	-	-	62%	43%	26%	13%	6%	85
Finn O'Sullivan	HBFL	66	-	-	43%	26%	13%	6%	2%	98
Paul Curtis	HFFL	65	-	-	40%	24%	12%	5%	2%	45
Colby McKercher	HFFR	62	-	-	34%	19%	9%	4%	1%	116
Cameron Zurhaar	FPL	61	-	-	33%	18%	8%	3%	1%	30
Aidan Corr	INT	60	-	-	31%	17%	8%	3%	1%	22
Tom Blamires	HBFR	60	-	-	32%	18%	8%	3%	1%	75
Charlie Comben	BPR	58	-	-	28%	15%	6%	2%	1%	60
Nick Larkey	FF	58	-	-	28%	15%	6%	2%	1%	53
Luke McDonald	BPL	55	-	-	24%	12%	5%	2%	0%	82
Callum Coleman-Jones	INT	53	-	-	21%	10%	4%	1%	0%	24
Lachy Dovaston	FPR	49	-	-	16%	7%	3%	1%	0%	36
Toby Pink	FB	49	-	-	16%	7%	3%	1%	0%	69
Cooper Trembath	CHF	48	-	-	15%	7%	2%	1%	0%	54
Zane Duursma	INT	47	-	-	13%	6%	2%	1%	0%	38