AFL · ROUND 3 · MARVEL STADIUM
Essendon v North Melbourne
Sat 28 Mar 2026, 7:35pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
NM by 4
NM to win, 56% chance
ESS 44%56% NM
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 12
HIT Actual margin 12 · 7.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 1.6 | - | - | 81% | 49% | 23% | 8% | 3% | 1.0 |
| Peter Wright | FF | 1.5 | - | - | 78% | 44% | 19% | 6% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Kyle Langford | FPR | 1.3 | - | - | 73% | 38% | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Isaac Kako | FPL | 0.9 | - | - | 60% | 24% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Jade Gresham | INT | 0.9 | - | - | 61% | 24% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Archie Perkins | INT | 0.8 | - | - | 57% | 20% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Sam Durham | HFFL | 0.7 | - | - | 49% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Dyson Sharp | HFFR | 0.6 | - | - | 45% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Jacob Farrow | HBFR | 0.6 | - | - | 42% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Brayden Fiorini | WR | 0.5 | - | - | 41% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Zach Merrett | R | 0.5 | - | - | 39% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | INT | 0.4 | - | - | 36% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Darcy Parish | RR | 0.4 | - | - | 32% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jye Caldwell | C | 0.4 | - | - | 32% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Xavier Duursma | WL | 0.4 | - | - | 36% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Saad El-Hawli | INT | 0.3 | - | - | 28% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPR | 0.2 | - | - | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Archie Roberts | HBFL | 0.1 | - | - | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPL | 0.1 | - | - | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | RK | 0.1 | - | - | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Zak Johnson | INT | 0.1 | - | - | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Ben McKay | FB | 0.0 | - | - | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Zach Reid | CHB | 0.0 | - | - | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Larkey | FF | 3.0 | - | - | 95% | 80% | 58% | 36% | 19% | 2.0 |
| Paul Curtis | HFFL | 2.1 | - | - | 88% | 63% | 36% | 17% | 7% | 1.0 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 2.0 | - | - | 87% | 60% | 33% | 15% | 6% | 1.0 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 1.5 | - | - | 77% | 44% | 19% | 6% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Lachy Dovaston | FPR | 0.7 | - | - | 52% | 17% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Zane Duursma | INT | 0.7 | - | - | 49% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Harry Sheezel | R | 0.6 | - | - | 44% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | RR | 0.6 | - | - | 43% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Luke Parker | INT | 0.6 | - | - | 44% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 0.5 | - | - | 38% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 0.5 | - | - | 41% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Tom Powell | C | 0.5 | - | - | 41% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Callum Coleman-Jones | INT | 0.4 | - | - | 34% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| George Wardlaw | INT | 0.4 | - | - | 36% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Colby McKercher | HFFR | 0.3 | - | - | 23% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Tom Blamires | HBFR | 0.3 | - | - | 28% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 0.3 | - | - | 25% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 0.2 | - | - | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Charlie Comben | BPR | 0.2 | - | - | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | HBFL | 0.2 | - | - | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Toby Pink | FB | 0.1 | - | - | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Aidan Corr | INT | -0.0 | - | - | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Luke McDonald | BPL | 0.0 | - | - | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |