AFL · ROUND 3 · MARVEL STADIUM
Essendon v North Melbourne
Sat 28 Mar 2026, 7:35pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
NM by 4
NM to win, 56% chance
ESS 44%56% NM
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 12
HIT Actual margin 12 · 7.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Reid | CHB | 5.2 | - | - | 76% | 59% | 42% | 26% | 15% | 7.0 |
| Ben McKay | FB | 5.1 | - | - | 75% | 57% | 40% | 25% | 14% | 3.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPL | 4.8 | - | - | 70% | 52% | 34% | 21% | 11% | 5.0 |
| Xavier Duursma | WL | 4.8 | - | - | 70% | 52% | 34% | 20% | 11% | 5.0 |
| Archie Roberts | HBFL | 4.4 | - | - | 64% | 45% | 28% | 16% | 8% | 2.0 |
| Archie Perkins | INT | 4.3 | - | - | 62% | 42% | 26% | 14% | 7% | 6.0 |
| Peter Wright | FF | 4.0 | - | - | 56% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 5.0 |
| Zak Johnson | INT | 4.0 | - | - | 56% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 3.0 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPR | 3.8 | - | - | 52% | 32% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 6.0 |
| Brayden Fiorini | WR | 3.8 | - | - | 52% | 33% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 0.0 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 3.8 | - | - | 54% | 34% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2.0 |
| Zach Merrett | R | 3.7 | - | - | 50% | 30% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1.0 |
| Jye Caldwell | C | 3.6 | - | - | 49% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 3.0 |
| Kyle Langford | FPR | 3.6 | - | - | 48% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 7.0 |
| Saad El-Hawli | INT | 3.5 | - | - | 46% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Darcy Parish | RR | 3.3 | - | - | 42% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 6.0 |
| Sam Durham | HFFL | 3.2 | - | - | 40% | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 4.0 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | INT | 3.1 | - | - | 37% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Jacob Farrow | HBFR | 3.1 | - | - | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 6.0 |
| Jade Gresham | INT | 3.1 | - | - | 38% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Dyson Sharp | HFFR | 2.4 | - | - | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Lachlan Blakiston | RK | 2.3 | - | - | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 5.0 |
| Isaac Kako | FPL | 2.1 | - | - | 17% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Comben | BPR | 6.2 | - | - | 87% | 74% | 59% | 43% | 29% | 6.0 |
| Harry Sheezel | R | 5.7 | - | - | 82% | 67% | 50% | 34% | 21% | 11.0 |
| Toby Pink | FB | 5.3 | - | - | 77% | 61% | 44% | 28% | 17% | 8.0 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 5.1 | - | - | 75% | 58% | 41% | 26% | 15% | 7.0 |
| Aidan Corr | INT | 4.9 | - | - | 72% | 55% | 37% | 23% | 12% | 2.0 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 4.9 | - | - | 72% | 54% | 36% | 22% | 12% | 5.0 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | HBFL | 4.8 | - | - | 71% | 53% | 35% | 21% | 12% | 8.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 4.7 | - | - | 68% | 50% | 32% | 19% | 10% | 7.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 4.5 | - | - | 65% | 46% | 29% | 16% | 8% | 7.0 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | RR | 4.3 | - | - | 62% | 42% | 26% | 14% | 7% | 11.0 |
| Luke McDonald | BPL | 4.0 | - | - | 57% | 37% | 22% | 11% | 5% | 8.0 |
| Paul Curtis | HFFL | 3.9 | - | - | 55% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 3.0 |
| Tom Powell | C | 3.8 | - | - | 52% | 33% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 13.0 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 3.7 | - | - | 50% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 4% | 3.0 |
| Tom Blamires | HBFR | 3.7 | - | - | 50% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 6.0 |
| Luke Parker | INT | 3.6 | - | - | 49% | 30% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 13.0 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 3.5 | - | - | 46% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 4.0 |
| Zane Duursma | INT | 3.5 | - | - | 46% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 3.0 |
| Colby McKercher | HFFR | 3.3 | - | - | 43% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 5.0 |
| Lachy Dovaston | FPR | 3.2 | - | - | 40% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Callum Coleman-Jones | INT | 2.3 | - | - | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| George Wardlaw | INT | 2.3 | - | - | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 2.1 | - | - | 16% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |