AFL · ROUND 3 · MARVEL STADIUM
Essendon v North Melbourne
Sat 28 Mar 2026, 7:35pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
NM by 4
NM to win, 56% chance
ESS 44%56% NM
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 12
HIT Actual margin 12 · 7.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett | R | 26.9 / 10.0 | 0.5 / 1.0 | 3.7 / 1.0 | 4.6 / 9.0 | 104 / 71 |
| Darcy Parish | RR | 25.9 / 19.0 | 0.4 / 0.0 | 3.3 / 6.0 | 4.1 / 3.0 | 96 / 73 |
| Archie Roberts | HBFL | 24.6 / 25.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 4.4 / 2.0 | 2.3 / 2.0 | 88 / 82 |
| Jye Caldwell | C | 23.3 / 22.0 | 0.4 / 1.0 | 3.6 / 3.0 | 6.0 / 4.0 | 94 / 86 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPR | 22.9 / 22.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 3.8 / 6.0 | 3.2 / 1.0 | 86 / 80 |
| Sam Durham | HFFL | 21.9 / 19.0 | 0.7 / 0.0 | 3.2 / 4.0 | 4.2 / 1.0 | 86 / 45 |
| Brayden Fiorini | WR | 19.3 / 0.0 | 0.5 / 0.0 | 3.8 / 0.0 | 3.2 / 0.0 | 79 / 0 |
| Xavier Duursma | WL | 16.7 / 17.0 | 0.4 / 0.0 | 4.8 / 5.0 | 2.4 / 2.0 | 71 / 65 |
| Zak Johnson | INT | 16.0 / 9.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 4.0 / 3.0 | 1.8 / 0.0 | 61 / 32 |
| Archie Perkins | INT | 14.9 / 16.0 | 0.8 / 0.0 | 4.3 / 6.0 | 2.4 / 1.0 | 64 / 64 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPL | 14.7 / 18.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 4.8 / 5.0 | 1.8 / 5.0 | 60 / 87 |
| Zach Reid | CHB | 14.6 / 11.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 5.2 / 7.0 | 2.0 / 1.0 | 62 / 53 |
| Isaac Kako | FPL | 13.7 / 12.0 | 0.9 / 1.0 | 2.1 / 1.0 | 3.3 / 1.0 | 62 / 41 |
| Saad El-Hawli | INT | 13.4 / 13.0 | 0.3 / 1.0 | 3.5 / 1.0 | 2.1 / 1.0 | 55 / 45 |
| Jade Gresham | INT | 13.2 / 11.0 | 0.9 / 1.0 | 3.1 / 1.0 | 2.4 / 3.0 | 57 / 47 |
| Jacob Farrow | HBFR | 12.0 / 13.0 | 0.6 / 0.0 | 3.1 / 6.0 | 1.9 / 3.0 | 55 / 66 |
| Kyle Langford | FPR | 11.8 / 19.0 | 1.3 / 0.0 | 3.6 / 7.0 | 2.0 / 4.0 | 63 / 86 |
| Peter Wright | FF | 10.7 / 15.0 | 1.5 / 2.0 | 4.0 / 5.0 | 1.9 / 1.0 | 62 / 77 |
| Ben McKay | FB | 10.6 / 5.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 5.1 / 3.0 | 1.5 / 1.0 | 49 / 26 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | RK | 10.2 / 12.0 | 0.1 / 1.0 | 2.3 / 5.0 | 2.4 / 1.0 | 60 / 70 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 10.0 / 9.0 | 1.6 / 1.0 | 3.8 / 2.0 | 1.5 / 1.0 | 56 / 36 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | INT | 9.9 / 15.0 | 0.4 / 0.0 | 3.1 / 2.0 | 1.9 / 3.0 | 46 / 52 |
| Dyson Sharp | HFFR | 8.7 / - | 0.6 / - | 2.4 / - | 2.2 / - | 51 / - |
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | R | 32.1 / 33.0 | 0.6 / 0.0 | 5.7 / 11.0 | 4.2 / 5.0 | 110 / 136 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | RR | 27.8 / 31.0 | 0.6 / 0.0 | 4.3 / 11.0 | 4.3 / 4.0 | 98 / 125 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 24.4 / 23.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 4.7 / 7.0 | 1.7 / 1.0 | 88 / 88 |
| Luke Parker | INT | 23.2 / 33.0 | 0.6 / 0.0 | 3.6 / 13.0 | 3.9 / 3.0 | 88 / 135 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 21.4 / 22.0 | 0.5 / 0.0 | 4.5 / 7.0 | 2.5 / 1.0 | 85 / 82 |
| Tom Powell | C | 21.0 / 23.0 | 0.5 / 0.0 | 3.8 / 13.0 | 3.7 / 4.0 | 82 / 115 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 19.4 / 23.0 | 0.5 / 0.0 | 5.1 / 7.0 | 1.9 / 1.0 | 76 / 85 |
| George Wardlaw | INT | 19.3 / 16.0 | 0.4 / 0.0 | 2.3 / 3.0 | 4.3 / 2.0 | 79 / 54 |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 18.9 / 15.0 | 0.3 / 1.0 | 2.1 / 1.0 | 6.1 / 1.0 | 106 / 55 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | HBFL | 18.0 / 24.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 4.8 / 8.0 | 2.3 / 3.0 | 66 / 98 |
| Colby McKercher | HFFR | 16.5 / 35.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 3.3 / 5.0 | 2.0 / 2.0 | 62 / 116 |
| Tom Blamires | HBFR | 16.1 / 17.0 | 0.3 / 1.0 | 3.7 / 6.0 | 1.8 / 1.0 | 60 / 75 |
| Aidan Corr | INT | 14.9 / 5.0 | -0.0 / 0.0 | 4.9 / 2.0 | 1.6 / 1.0 | 60 / 22 |
| Luke McDonald | BPL | 13.8 / 18.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 4.0 / 8.0 | 1.8 / 2.0 | 55 / 82 |
| Charlie Comben | BPR | 12.3 / 12.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 6.2 / 6.0 | 1.4 / 2.0 | 58 / 60 |
| Toby Pink | FB | 10.7 / 19.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 5.3 / 8.0 | 1.5 / 0.0 | 49 / 69 |
| Lachy Dovaston | FPR | 10.3 / 7.0 | 0.7 / 1.0 | 3.2 / 3.0 | 1.9 / 1.0 | 49 / 36 |
| Paul Curtis | HFFL | 10.3 / 9.0 | 2.1 / 1.0 | 3.9 / 3.0 | 3.3 / 2.0 | 65 / 45 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 10.1 / 8.0 | 2.0 / 1.0 | 3.7 / 3.0 | 1.9 / 0.0 | 61 / 30 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 8.7 / 12.0 | 3.0 / 2.0 | 4.9 / 5.0 | 1.4 / 0.0 | 58 / 53 |
| Zane Duursma | INT | 8.4 / 5.0 | 0.7 / 3.0 | 3.5 / 3.0 | 1.7 / 0.0 | 47 / 38 |
| Callum Coleman-Jones | INT | 8.0 / 6.0 | 0.4 / 0.0 | 2.3 / 1.0 | 1.8 / 2.0 | 53 / 24 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 7.5 / 9.0 | 1.5 / 2.0 | 3.5 / 4.0 | 1.8 / 1.0 | 48 / 54 |