AFL · ROUND 3 · MARVEL STADIUM
Essendon v North Melbourne
Sat 28 Mar 2026, 7:35pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
NM by 4
NM to win, 56% chance
ESS 44%56% NM
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 12
HIT Actual margin 12 · 7.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jye Caldwell | C | 6.0 | - | - | 94% | 85% | 72% | 56% | 40% | 4.0 |
| Zach Merrett | R | 4.6 | - | - | 84% | 68% | 49% | 32% | 19% | 9.0 |
| Sam Durham | HFFL | 4.2 | - | - | 78% | 60% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 1.0 |
| Darcy Parish | RR | 4.1 | - | - | 77% | 58% | 39% | 23% | 12% | 3.0 |
| Isaac Kako | FPL | 3.3 | - | - | 64% | 42% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 1.0 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPR | 3.2 | - | - | 61% | 39% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1.0 |
| Brayden Fiorini | WR | 3.2 | - | - | 62% | 39% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 0.0 |
| Archie Perkins | INT | 2.4 | - | - | 43% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Jade Gresham | INT | 2.4 | - | - | 42% | 22% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | RK | 2.4 | - | - | 43% | 22% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Xavier Duursma | WL | 2.4 | - | - | 44% | 23% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Archie Roberts | HBFL | 2.3 | - | - | 40% | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Dyson Sharp | HFFR | 2.2 | - | - | 38% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 1% | - |
| Saad El-Hawli | INT | 2.1 | - | - | 36% | 17% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Kyle Langford | FPR | 2.0 | - | - | 32% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Zach Reid | CHB | 2.0 | - | - | 33% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | INT | 1.9 | - | - | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Jacob Farrow | HBFR | 1.9 | - | - | 30% | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Peter Wright | FF | 1.9 | - | - | 30% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPL | 1.8 | - | - | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 5.0 |
| Zak Johnson | INT | 1.8 | - | - | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Ben McKay | FB | 1.5 | - | - | 19% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 1.5 | - | - | 19% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 6.1 | - | - | 94% | 86% | 73% | 57% | 41% | 1.0 |
| George Wardlaw | INT | 4.3 | - | - | 80% | 62% | 43% | 26% | 14% | 2.0 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | RR | 4.3 | - | - | 80% | 62% | 43% | 26% | 14% | 4.0 |
| Harry Sheezel | R | 4.2 | - | - | 79% | 61% | 41% | 25% | 13% | 5.0 |
| Luke Parker | INT | 3.9 | - | - | 75% | 55% | 36% | 20% | 10% | 3.0 |
| Tom Powell | C | 3.7 | - | - | 72% | 51% | 32% | 18% | 8% | 4.0 |
| Paul Curtis | HFFL | 3.3 | - | - | 64% | 42% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 2.5 | - | - | 46% | 25% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | HBFL | 2.3 | - | - | 42% | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Colby McKercher | HFFR | 2.0 | - | - | 33% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 1.9 | - | - | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 1.9 | - | - | 31% | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Lachy Dovaston | FPR | 1.9 | - | - | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Callum Coleman-Jones | INT | 1.8 | - | - | 27% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 1.8 | - | - | 26% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Luke McDonald | BPL | 1.8 | - | - | 28% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Tom Blamires | HBFR | 1.8 | - | - | 28% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 1.7 | - | - | 25% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Zane Duursma | INT | 1.7 | - | - | 25% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Aidan Corr | INT | 1.6 | - | - | 21% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Toby Pink | FB | 1.5 | - | - | 18% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Charlie Comben | BPR | 1.4 | - | - | 18% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 1.4 | - | - | 18% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |