AFL · ROUND 3 · OPTUS STADIUM
Fremantle v Richmond
Sat 28 Mar 2026, 1:15pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
FRE by 44
FRE to win, 93% chance
FRE 93%7% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 60
HIT Actual margin 60 · 15.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Serong | R | 26.4 | - | - | 99% | 92% | 64% | 27% | 6% | 32.0 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 25.8 | - | - | 99% | 90% | 59% | 23% | 5% | 21.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 24.3 | - | - | 98% | 84% | 47% | 15% | 2% | 27.0 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 22.0 | - | - | 95% | 70% | 29% | 6% | 1% | 14.0 |
| Jaeger O'Meara | WL | 21.4 | - | - | 94% | 65% | 25% | 5% | 0% | 19.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | INT | 19.8 | - | - | 88% | 51% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 21.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RR | 19.3 | - | - | 86% | 46% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 17.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | WR | 18.8 | - | - | 84% | 42% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 17.0 |
| Shai Bolton | FPL | 17.7 | - | - | 77% | 32% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 33.0 |
| Karl Worner | HBFR | 17.1 | - | - | 72% | 27% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Murphy Reid | FPR | 16.9 | - | - | 71% | 25% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 23.0 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 16.3 | - | - | 66% | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 19.0 |
| Corey Wagner | INT | 15.2 | - | - | 56% | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 22.0 |
| Judd McVee | INT | 15.0 | - | - | 53% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 17.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 13.3 | - | - | 36% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Brennan Cox | BPL | 12.7 | - | - | 30% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 17.0 |
| Christopher Scerri | INT | 12.0 | - | - | 23% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FF | 12.0 | - | - | 23% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Sean Darcy | RK | 11.4 | - | - | 17% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 10.8 | - | - | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Patrick Voss | CHF | 10.2 | - | - | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 10.0 | - | - | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Jye Amiss | HFFL | 9.2 | - | - | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Taranto | RR | 26.1 | - | - | 99% | 91% | 61% | 25% | 6% | 24.0 |
| Jacob Hopper | INT | 24.7 | - | - | 98% | 85% | 50% | 16% | 3% | 20.0 |
| Sam Banks | HBFL | 22.3 | - | - | 96% | 72% | 31% | 7% | 1% | 18.0 |
| Dion Prestia | R | 21.9 | - | - | 95% | 69% | 28% | 6% | 1% | 16.0 |
| Jayden Short | CHB | 21.6 | - | - | 94% | 67% | 26% | 5% | 0% | 20.0 |
| Jack Ross | C | 21.4 | - | - | 94% | 65% | 25% | 5% | 0% | 23.0 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFR | 17.8 | - | - | 78% | 33% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 19.0 |
| Luke Trainor | BPR | 16.9 | - | - | 71% | 26% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 28.0 |
| Tom Brown | INT | 15.4 | - | - | 57% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Sam Grlj | INT | 14.9 | - | - | 53% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Tyler Sonsie | WR | 14.7 | - | - | 50% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 20.0 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 14.5 | - | - | 48% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Seth Campbell | HFFL | 13.6 | - | - | 39% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |
| Noah Balta | BPL | 13.3 | - | - | 36% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |
| Hugo Ralphsmith | WL | 13.2 | - | - | 34% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Steely Green | INT | 11.4 | - | - | 18% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Sam Lalor | CHF | 10.8 | - | - | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Campbell Gray | RK | 10.2 | - | - | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Jasper Alger | FF | 9.9 | - | - | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Maurice Rioli | HFFR | 9.6 | - | - | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Jonty Faull | FPL | 9.5 | - | - | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Mykelti Lefau | INT | 8.8 | - | - | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6.0 |
| Harry Armstrong | FPR | 7.9 | - | - | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |