AFL · ROUND 3 · OPTUS STADIUM
Fremantle v Richmond
Sat 28 Mar 2026, 1:15pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
FRE by 44
FRE to win, 93% chance
FRE 93%7% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 60
HIT Actual margin 60 · 15.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Serong | R | 97 | - | - | 90% | 79% | 63% | 45% | 27% | 124 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 95 | - | - | 88% | 76% | 59% | 41% | 24% | 93 |
| Luke Jackson | RR | 93 | - | - | 86% | 74% | 56% | 38% | 22% | 81 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 91 | - | - | 84% | 70% | 52% | 34% | 19% | 98 |
| Sean Darcy | RK | 80 | - | - | 68% | 50% | 32% | 18% | 8% | 76 |
| Jaeger O'Meara | WL | 79 | - | - | 66% | 47% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 76 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 79 | - | - | 67% | 48% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 58 |
| Shai Bolton | FPL | 75 | - | - | 59% | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 112 |
| Neil Erasmus | INT | 74 | - | - | 57% | 38% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 67 |
| Matthew Johnson | WR | 72 | - | - | 54% | 36% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 54 |
| Josh Treacy | FF | 66 | - | - | 43% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 120 |
| Murphy Reid | FPR | 66 | - | - | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 71 |
| Karl Worner | HBFR | 65 | - | - | 40% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 56 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 64 | - | - | 38% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 78 |
| Corey Wagner | INT | 60 | - | - | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 86 |
| Judd McVee | INT | 58 | - | - | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 55 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 58 | - | - | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 52 |
| Brennan Cox | BPL | 56 | - | - | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 79 |
| Patrick Voss | CHF | 56 | - | - | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 89 |
| Christopher Scerri | INT | 55 | - | - | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 24 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 51 | - | - | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 49 |
| Jye Amiss | HFFL | 49 | - | - | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 63 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 46 | - | - | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 37 |
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Taranto | RR | 91 | - | - | 84% | 70% | 52% | 34% | 19% | 114 |
| Jacob Hopper | INT | 87 | - | - | 78% | 62% | 44% | 26% | 14% | 54 |
| Jack Ross | C | 85 | - | - | 75% | 58% | 40% | 23% | 12% | 75 |
| Jayden Short | CHB | 84 | - | - | 75% | 58% | 39% | 23% | 11% | 93 |
| Sam Banks | HBFL | 83 | - | - | 73% | 56% | 38% | 21% | 10% | 47 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFR | 74 | - | - | 57% | 38% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 79 |
| Dion Prestia | R | 73 | - | - | 56% | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 64 |
| Luke Trainor | BPR | 64 | - | - | 39% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 102 |
| Noah Balta | BPL | 63 | - | - | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 20 |
| Tom Brown | INT | 63 | - | - | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 31 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 60 | - | - | 32% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 49 |
| Seth Campbell | HFFL | 60 | - | - | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 25 |
| Sam Grlj | INT | 59 | - | - | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 68 |
| Tyler Sonsie | WR | 59 | - | - | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 61 |
| Hugo Ralphsmith | WL | 55 | - | - | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 40 |
| Steely Green | INT | 53 | - | - | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 60 |
| Sam Lalor | CHF | 51 | - | - | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 67 |
| Maurice Rioli | HFFR | 49 | - | - | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 30 |
| Mykelti Lefau | INT | 48 | - | - | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 38 |
| Campbell Gray | RK | 46 | - | - | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 14 |
| Jonty Faull | FPL | 46 | - | - | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 52 |
| Jasper Alger | FF | 45 | - | - | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 8 |
| Harry Armstrong | FPR | 43 | - | - | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1 |