AFL · ROUND 3 · OPTUS STADIUM
Fremantle v Richmond
Sat 28 Mar 2026, 1:15pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
FRE by 44
FRE to win, 93% chance
FRE 93%7% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 60
HIT Actual margin 60 · 15.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Voss | CHF | 1.9 | - | - | 85% | 56% | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FF | 1.8 | - | - | 83% | 53% | 26% | 10% | 4% | 4.0 |
| Jye Amiss | HFFL | 1.6 | - | - | 80% | 47% | 21% | 8% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 1.3 | - | - | 73% | 38% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Shai Bolton | FPL | 1.3 | - | - | 73% | 37% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Murphy Reid | FPR | 1.1 | - | - | 66% | 30% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RR | 0.9 | - | - | 58% | 22% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 0.7 | - | - | 48% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Christopher Scerri | INT | 0.6 | - | - | 42% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 0.4 | - | - | 30% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Caleb Serong | R | 0.4 | - | - | 34% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | INT | 0.4 | - | - | 30% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Sean Darcy | RK | 0.4 | - | - | 34% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Jaeger O'Meara | WL | 0.3 | - | - | 25% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Corey Wagner | INT | 0.2 | - | - | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | WR | 0.2 | - | - | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 0.1 | - | - | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 0.1 | - | - | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Judd McVee | INT | 0.1 | - | - | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Karl Worner | HBFR | 0.1 | - | - | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Brennan Cox | BPL | 0.0 | - | - | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 0.0 | - | - | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 0.0 | - | - | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonty Faull | FPL | 1.1 | - | - | 65% | 28% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Mykelti Lefau | INT | 1.1 | - | - | 67% | 30% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Seth Campbell | HFFL | 1.0 | - | - | 63% | 26% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Harry Armstrong | FPR | 0.9 | - | - | 60% | 23% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Steely Green | INT | 0.9 | - | - | 60% | 23% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Sam Lalor | CHF | 0.8 | - | - | 56% | 20% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jasper Alger | FF | 0.7 | - | - | 48% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Dion Prestia | R | 0.5 | - | - | 39% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Tim Taranto | RR | 0.5 | - | - | 40% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Tyler Sonsie | WR | 0.5 | - | - | 42% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Campbell Gray | RK | 0.4 | - | - | 34% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Maurice Rioli | HFFR | 0.4 | - | - | 35% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Hugo Ralphsmith | WL | 0.3 | - | - | 25% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jacob Hopper | INT | 0.3 | - | - | 25% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Noah Balta | BPL | 0.3 | - | - | 28% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Tom Brown | INT | 0.3 | - | - | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jack Ross | C | 0.2 | - | - | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Sam Grlj | INT | 0.2 | - | - | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jayden Short | CHB | 0.1 | - | - | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Luke Trainor | BPR | 0.1 | - | - | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Sam Banks | HBFL | 0.1 | - | - | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 0.0 | - | - | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFR | 0.0 | - | - | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |