AFL · ROUND 3 · OPTUS STADIUM
Fremantle v Richmond
Sat 28 Mar 2026, 1:15pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
FRE by 44
FRE to win, 93% chance
FRE 93%7% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 60
HIT Actual margin 60 · 15.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 6.8 | - | - | 91% | 81% | 68% | 52% | 38% | 5.0 |
| Brennan Cox | BPL | 6.3 | - | - | 88% | 76% | 61% | 45% | 30% | 5.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FF | 5.7 | - | - | 82% | 67% | 51% | 35% | 22% | 12.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 5.2 | - | - | 76% | 60% | 42% | 27% | 16% | 4.0 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 5.2 | - | - | 76% | 59% | 41% | 26% | 15% | 6.0 |
| Karl Worner | HBFR | 5.2 | - | - | 77% | 60% | 43% | 28% | 16% | 6.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 5.1 | - | - | 76% | 58% | 41% | 26% | 15% | 4.0 |
| Judd McVee | INT | 4.2 | - | - | 60% | 41% | 24% | 13% | 6% | 2.0 |
| Jaeger O'Meara | WL | 4.1 | - | - | 58% | 39% | 23% | 12% | 6% | 2.0 |
| Patrick Voss | CHF | 4.1 | - | - | 58% | 39% | 23% | 12% | 6% | 6.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | WR | 3.9 | - | - | 54% | 34% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 3.0 |
| Jye Amiss | HFFL | 3.7 | - | - | 52% | 32% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 4.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | INT | 3.6 | - | - | 49% | 30% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 3.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RR | 3.5 | - | - | 46% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 0.0 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 3.3 | - | - | 41% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 5.0 |
| Corey Wagner | INT | 3.3 | - | - | 42% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 8.0 |
| Christopher Scerri | INT | 3.1 | - | - | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Shai Bolton | FPL | 3.0 | - | - | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Caleb Serong | R | 2.9 | - | - | 33% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Murphy Reid | FPR | 2.9 | - | - | 32% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 6.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 2.8 | - | - | 31% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 2.7 | - | - | 29% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Sean Darcy | RK | 2.4 | - | - | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Short | CHB | 6.5 | - | - | 89% | 78% | 64% | 48% | 33% | 10.0 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 6.3 | - | - | 87% | 75% | 60% | 44% | 29% | 2.0 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFR | 6.0 | - | - | 85% | 72% | 56% | 40% | 26% | 6.0 |
| Tom Brown | INT | 5.7 | - | - | 82% | 67% | 50% | 35% | 22% | 2.0 |
| Noah Balta | BPL | 5.6 | - | - | 80% | 65% | 48% | 32% | 20% | 3.0 |
| Sam Banks | HBFL | 5.5 | - | - | 80% | 64% | 47% | 31% | 19% | 2.0 |
| Luke Trainor | BPR | 5.2 | - | - | 76% | 59% | 41% | 26% | 15% | 9.0 |
| Sam Grlj | INT | 3.9 | - | - | 54% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 3.0 |
| Jack Ross | C | 3.8 | - | - | 52% | 33% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2.0 |
| Mykelti Lefau | INT | 3.6 | - | - | 48% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 3.0 |
| Tyler Sonsie | WR | 3.6 | - | - | 48% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1.0 |
| Dion Prestia | R | 3.5 | - | - | 45% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 4.0 |
| Hugo Ralphsmith | WL | 3.5 | - | - | 46% | 28% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1.0 |
| Campbell Gray | RK | 3.4 | - | - | 45% | 26% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Steely Green | INT | 3.3 | - | - | 42% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Harry Armstrong | FPR | 3.2 | - | - | 41% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0.0 |
| Jacob Hopper | INT | 3.1 | - | - | 37% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Jonty Faull | FPL | 3.1 | - | - | 37% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Seth Campbell | HFFL | 3.1 | - | - | 37% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Sam Lalor | CHF | 3.0 | - | - | 35% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Tim Taranto | RR | 3.0 | - | - | 36% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Jasper Alger | FF | 2.8 | - | - | 32% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Maurice Rioli | HFFR | 2.3 | - | - | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 3.0 |