AFL · ROUND 3 · OPTUS STADIUM
Fremantle v Richmond
Sat 28 Mar 2026, 1:15pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
FRE by 44
FRE to win, 93% chance
FRE 93%7% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 60
HIT Actual margin 60 · 15.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Serong | R | 26.4 / 32.0 | 0.4 / 2.0 | 2.9 / 2.0 | 4.6 / 6.0 | 97 / 124 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 25.8 / 21.0 | 0.4 / 0.0 | 3.3 / 5.0 | 5.7 / 5.0 | 95 / 93 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 24.3 / 27.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 5.1 / 4.0 | 2.5 / 4.0 | 91 / 98 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 22.0 / 14.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 6.8 / 5.0 | 1.7 / 2.0 | 79 / 58 |
| Jaeger O'Meara | WL | 21.4 / 19.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 4.1 / 2.0 | 3.1 / 5.0 | 79 / 76 |
| Neil Erasmus | INT | 19.8 / 21.0 | 0.4 / 0.0 | 3.6 / 3.0 | 2.7 / 2.0 | 74 / 67 |
| Luke Jackson | RR | 19.3 / 17.0 | 0.9 / 1.0 | 3.5 / 0.0 | 4.3 / 2.0 | 93 / 81 |
| Matthew Johnson | WR | 18.8 / 17.0 | 0.2 / 1.0 | 3.9 / 3.0 | 3.4 / 0.0 | 72 / 54 |
| Shai Bolton | FPL | 17.7 / 33.0 | 1.3 / 0.0 | 3.0 / 4.0 | 2.9 / 5.0 | 75 / 112 |
| Karl Worner | HBFR | 17.1 / 14.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 5.2 / 6.0 | 1.9 / 1.0 | 65 / 56 |
| Murphy Reid | FPR | 16.9 / 23.0 | 1.1 / 0.0 | 2.9 / 6.0 | 2.4 / 0.0 | 66 / 71 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 16.3 / 19.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 5.2 / 6.0 | 1.9 / 3.0 | 64 / 78 |
| Corey Wagner | INT | 15.2 / 22.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 3.3 / 8.0 | 3.8 / 1.0 | 60 / 86 |
| Judd McVee | INT | 15.0 / 17.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 4.2 / 2.0 | 1.9 / 1.0 | 58 / 55 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 13.3 / 12.0 | 0.7 / 0.0 | 2.7 / 2.0 | 3.2 / 4.0 | 58 / 52 |
| Brennan Cox | BPL | 12.7 / 17.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 6.3 / 5.0 | 1.4 / 4.0 | 56 / 79 |
| Christopher Scerri | INT | 12.0 / 8.0 | 0.6 / 0.0 | 3.1 / 2.0 | 1.9 / 0.0 | 55 / 24 |
| Josh Treacy | FF | 12.0 / 16.0 | 1.8 / 4.0 | 5.7 / 12.0 | 1.8 / 2.0 | 66 / 120 |
| Sean Darcy | RK | 11.4 / 8.0 | 0.4 / 1.0 | 2.4 / 1.0 | 2.9 / 5.0 | 80 / 76 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 10.8 / 10.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 5.2 / 4.0 | 1.4 / 0.0 | 46 / 37 |
| Patrick Voss | CHF | 10.2 / 18.0 | 1.9 / 1.0 | 4.1 / 6.0 | 1.8 / 5.0 | 56 / 89 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 10.0 / 11.0 | 1.3 / 1.0 | 2.8 / 3.0 | 1.9 / 2.0 | 51 / 49 |
| Jye Amiss | HFFL | 9.2 / 10.0 | 1.6 / 2.0 | 3.7 / 4.0 | 1.6 / 2.0 | 49 / 63 |
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Taranto | RR | 26.1 / 24.0 | 0.5 / 2.0 | 3.0 / 3.0 | 4.7 / 10.0 | 91 / 114 |
| Jacob Hopper | INT | 24.7 / 20.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 3.1 / 0.0 | 3.2 / 2.0 | 87 / 54 |
| Sam Banks | HBFL | 22.3 / 18.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 5.5 / 2.0 | 2.2 / 0.0 | 83 / 47 |
| Dion Prestia | R | 21.9 / 16.0 | 0.5 / 0.0 | 3.5 / 4.0 | 3.2 / 3.0 | 73 / 64 |
| Jayden Short | CHB | 21.6 / 20.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 6.5 / 10.0 | 1.7 / 3.0 | 84 / 93 |
| Jack Ross | C | 21.4 / 23.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 3.8 / 2.0 | 4.5 / 3.0 | 85 / 75 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFR | 17.8 / 19.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 6.0 / 6.0 | 2.0 / 1.0 | 74 / 79 |
| Luke Trainor | BPR | 16.9 / 28.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 5.2 / 9.0 | 1.8 / 1.0 | 64 / 102 |
| Tom Brown | INT | 15.4 / 11.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 5.7 / 2.0 | 1.5 / 0.0 | 63 / 31 |
| Sam Grlj | INT | 14.9 / 18.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 3.9 / 3.0 | 2.0 / 3.0 | 59 / 68 |
| Tyler Sonsie | WR | 14.7 / 20.0 | 0.5 / 0.0 | 3.6 / 1.0 | 2.0 / 1.0 | 59 / 61 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 14.5 / 15.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 6.3 / 2.0 | 1.7 / 3.0 | 60 / 49 |
| Seth Campbell | HFFL | 13.6 / 7.0 | 1.0 / 0.0 | 3.1 / 0.0 | 2.6 / 2.0 | 60 / 25 |
| Noah Balta | BPL | 13.3 / 7.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 5.6 / 3.0 | 1.7 / 0.0 | 63 / 20 |
| Hugo Ralphsmith | WL | 13.2 / 14.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 3.5 / 1.0 | 2.1 / 1.0 | 55 / 40 |
| Steely Green | INT | 11.4 / 9.0 | 0.9 / 3.0 | 3.3 / 3.0 | 2.5 / 2.0 | 53 / 60 |
| Sam Lalor | CHF | 10.8 / 15.0 | 0.8 / 0.0 | 3.0 / 3.0 | 2.5 / 6.0 | 51 / 67 |
| Campbell Gray | RK | 10.2 / 3.0 | 0.4 / 0.0 | 3.4 / 1.0 | 1.8 / 2.0 | 46 / 14 |
| Jasper Alger | FF | 9.9 / 3.0 | 0.7 / 0.0 | 2.8 / 1.0 | 2.0 / 0.0 | 45 / 8 |
| Maurice Rioli | HFFR | 9.6 / 10.0 | 0.4 / 0.0 | 2.3 / 3.0 | 3.4 / 1.0 | 49 / 30 |
| Jonty Faull | FPL | 9.5 / 8.0 | 1.1 / 1.0 | 3.1 / 2.0 | 1.7 / 4.0 | 46 / 52 |
| Mykelti Lefau | INT | 8.8 / 6.0 | 1.1 / 0.0 | 3.6 / 3.0 | 2.1 / 5.0 | 48 / 38 |
| Harry Armstrong | FPR | 7.9 / 0.0 | 0.9 / 0.0 | 3.2 / 0.0 | 1.9 / 0.0 | 43 / 1 |