Fremantle v Richmond

Sat 28 Mar 2026, 1:15pm AWST (venue time)

FINAL HIT

OUR TIPNEW MODEL

FRE by 44

FRE to win, 93% chance

FRE 93%7% RIC

BY HOW MUCH

No margin range published for this match.

RESULT

FRE by 60

HIT Actual margin 60 · 15.9 points off our margin

MATCH MODEL Tip and margin NEW MODEL 29 Mar 2026

Player predictions

Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.

Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range

Fremantle

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	3+	4+	5+	6+	7+	ACTUAL
Andrew Brayshaw	C	5.7	-	-	92%	82%	68%	51%	35%	5.0
Caleb Serong	R	4.6	-	-	84%	68%	50%	32%	19%	6.0
Luke Jackson	RR	4.3	-	-	80%	61%	42%	26%	14%	2.0
Corey Wagner	INT	3.8	-	-	73%	52%	33%	18%	9%	1.0
Matthew Johnson	WR	3.4	-	-	66%	45%	26%	13%	6%	0.0
Sam Switkowski	HFFR	3.2	-	-	62%	39%	22%	10%	4%	4.0
Jaeger O'Meara	WL	3.1	-	-	61%	39%	21%	10%	4%	5.0
Sean Darcy	RK	2.9	-	-	54%	32%	16%	7%	3%	5.0
Shai Bolton	FPL	2.9	-	-	55%	33%	17%	7%	3%	5.0
Neil Erasmus	INT	2.7	-	-	50%	28%	14%	6%	2%	2.0
Jordan Clark	HBFL	2.5	-	-	45%	24%	11%	4%	1%	4.0
Murphy Reid	FPR	2.4	-	-	42%	21%	9%	3%	1%	0.0
Christopher Scerri	INT	1.9	-	-	30%	13%	5%	1%	0%	0.0
Heath Chapman	BPR	1.9	-	-	28%	12%	4%	1%	0%	3.0
Isaiah Dudley	INT	1.9	-	-	29%	12%	4%	1%	0%	2.0
Judd McVee	INT	1.9	-	-	29%	12%	4%	1%	0%	1.0
Karl Worner	HBFR	1.9	-	-	30%	13%	5%	1%	0%	1.0
Josh Treacy	FF	1.8	-	-	27%	11%	4%	1%	0%	2.0
Patrick Voss	CHF	1.8	-	-	26%	10%	3%	1%	0%	5.0
Luke Ryan	CHB	1.7	-	-	23%	9%	3%	1%	0%	2.0
Jye Amiss	HFFL	1.6	-	-	23%	8%	3%	1%	0%	2.0
Alex Pearce	FB	1.4	-	-	18%	6%	2%	0%	0%	0.0
Brennan Cox	BPL	1.4	-	-	18%	6%	2%	0%	0%	4.0

Richmond

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	3+	4+	5+	6+	7+	ACTUAL
Tim Taranto	RR	4.7	-	-	85%	69%	51%	34%	20%	10.0
Jack Ross	C	4.5	-	-	83%	66%	48%	30%	17%	3.0
Maurice Rioli	HFFR	3.4	-	-	66%	44%	25%	13%	6%	1.0
Dion Prestia	R	3.2	-	-	62%	40%	22%	11%	4%	3.0
Jacob Hopper	INT	3.2	-	-	62%	40%	22%	11%	4%	2.0
Seth Campbell	HFFL	2.6	-	-	49%	27%	13%	5%	2%	2.0
Sam Lalor	CHF	2.5	-	-	45%	24%	11%	4%	1%	6.0
Steely Green	INT	2.5	-	-	46%	24%	11%	4%	1%	2.0
Sam Banks	HBFL	2.2	-	-	37%	18%	7%	2%	1%	0.0
Hugo Ralphsmith	WL	2.1	-	-	36%	17%	7%	2%	1%	1.0
Mykelti Lefau	INT	2.1	-	-	34%	16%	6%	2%	1%	5.0
Jasper Alger	FF	2.0	-	-	31%	14%	5%	2%	0%	0.0
Nick Vlastuin	HBFR	2.0	-	-	33%	14%	5%	2%	0%	1.0
Sam Grlj	INT	2.0	-	-	33%	15%	6%	2%	0%	3.0
Tyler Sonsie	WR	2.0	-	-	32%	14%	5%	2%	0%	1.0
Harry Armstrong	FPR	1.9	-	-	30%	13%	5%	1%	0%	0.0
Campbell Gray	RK	1.8	-	-	27%	11%	4%	1%	0%	2.0
Luke Trainor	BPR	1.8	-	-	26%	10%	3%	1%	0%	1.0
Ben Miller	FB	1.7	-	-	23%	9%	3%	1%	0%	3.0
Jayden Short	CHB	1.7	-	-	24%	9%	3%	1%	0%	3.0
Jonty Faull	FPL	1.7	-	-	25%	10%	3%	1%	0%	4.0
Noah Balta	BPL	1.7	-	-	26%	10%	3%	1%	0%	0.0
Tom Brown	INT	1.5	-	-	20%	7%	2%	0%	0%	0.0