AFL · ROUND 3 · GMHBA STADIUM
Geelong Cats v Adelaide Crows
Thu 26 Mar 2026, 7:30pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GEE by 20
GEE to win, 76% chance
GEE 76%24% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 8
HIT Actual margin 8 · 11.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holmes | R | 28.7 | - | - | 100% | 96% | 78% | 43% | 14% | 27.0 |
| Bailey Smith | C | 28.4 | - | - | 100% | 96% | 76% | 41% | 13% | 40.0 |
| Tom Atkins | RR | 21.4 | - | - | 94% | 65% | 25% | 5% | 0% | 23.0 |
| Tom Stewart | CHB | 20.8 | - | - | 92% | 60% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 24.0 |
| Gryan Miers | HFFL | 18.3 | - | - | 81% | 38% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 25.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | INT | 17.4 | - | - | 75% | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | HBFL | 17.2 | - | - | 73% | 28% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | HFFR | 16.8 | - | - | 70% | 25% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 21.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | CHF | 16.6 | - | - | 68% | 23% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 24.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | HBFR | 16.5 | - | - | 67% | 22% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Mark Blicavs | WL | 14.4 | - | - | 48% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 24.0 |
| Jhye Clark | INT | 13.8 | - | - | 41% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Jeremy Cameron | FPL | 13.1 | - | - | 33% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Jack Martin | FPR | 12.8 | - | - | 31% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | WR | 12.4 | - | - | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 17.0 |
| Sam De Koning | FB | 12.4 | - | - | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | BPL | 12.3 | - | - | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 23.0 |
| Oliver Wiltshire | INT | 12.0 | - | - | 23% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Jack Henry | BPR | 11.8 | - | - | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | INT | 10.6 | - | - | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 10.0 | - | - | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6.0 |
| Oliver Henry | INT | 9.3 | - | - | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 8.3 | - | - | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Worrell | CHB | 23.2 | - | - | 97% | 78% | 38% | 10% | 1% | 30.0 |
| Jake Soligo | INT | 21.7 | - | - | 94% | 67% | 26% | 5% | 0% | 21.0 |
| Wayne Milera | HBFR | 20.9 | - | - | 93% | 61% | 21% | 4% | 0% | 19.0 |
| James Peatling | C | 18.6 | - | - | 83% | 41% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 22.0 |
| Izak Rankine | HFFL | 17.8 | - | - | 78% | 33% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |
| Sam Berry | RR | 17.1 | - | - | 73% | 27% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 22.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | CHF | 16.9 | - | - | 71% | 25% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Isaac Cumming | WR | 15.5 | - | - | 59% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Max Michalanney | INT | 15.2 | - | - | 55% | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Ben Keays | HFFR | 15.0 | - | - | 53% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Chayce Jones | BPR | 15.0 | - | - | 53% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Josh Rachele | R | 14.9 | - | - | 52% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 31.0 |
| Luke Nankervis | INT | 14.1 | - | - | 44% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | FF | 13.1 | - | - | 33% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Brayden Cook | WL | 12.0 | - | - | 22% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 21.0 |
| Hugh Bond | HBFL | 11.3 | - | - | 17% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Nick Murray | BPL | 11.3 | - | - | 17% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Darcy Fogarty | FPR | 11.2 | - | - | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 10.5 | - | - | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 17.0 |
| Zac Taylor | FPL | 10.5 | - | - | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |
| Luke Pedlar | INT | 9.7 | - | - | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |
| Jordon Butts | FB | 9.1 | - | - | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Finnbar Maley | INT | 7.5 | - | - | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |