Geelong Cats v Adelaide Crows

Thu 26 Mar 2026, 7:30pm AEDT (venue time)

FINAL HIT

OUR TIPNEW MODEL

GEE by 20

GEE to win, 76% chance

GEE 76%24% ADE

BY HOW MUCH

No margin range published for this match.

RESULT

GEE by 8

HIT Actual margin 8 · 11.5 points off our margin

MATCH MODEL Tip and margin NEW MODEL 29 Mar 2026

Player predictions

Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.

Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range

Geelong Cats

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	1+	2+	3+	4+	5+	ACTUAL
Jeremy Cameron	FPL	2.6	-	-	93%	73%	48%	26%	12%	0.0
Shannon Neale	FF	1.7	-	-	82%	52%	25%	10%	3%	0.0
Oliver Henry	INT	1.3	-	-	72%	36%	14%	4%	1%	1.0
Shaun Mannagh	CHF	1.3	-	-	72%	36%	13%	4%	1%	1.0
Oliver Dempsey	HFFR	1.2	-	-	70%	34%	12%	4%	1%	2.0
Jack Martin	FPR	0.9	-	-	60%	23%	6%	1%	0%	3.0
Oliver Wiltshire	INT	0.6	-	-	42%	11%	2%	0%	0%	0.0
Gryan Miers	HFFL	0.5	-	-	39%	9%	1%	0%	0%	0.0
Bailey Smith	C	0.4	-	-	32%	6%	1%	0%	0%	0.0
Mark Blicavs	WL	0.4	-	-	32%	6%	1%	0%	0%	0.0
Max Holmes	R	0.4	-	-	35%	7%	1%	0%	0%	1.0
Mitchell Edwards	RK	0.4	-	-	34%	6%	1%	0%	0%	0.0
Tanner Bruhn	INT	0.3	-	-	30%	5%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Tom Atkins	RR	0.3	-	-	23%	3%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Jhye Clark	INT	0.2	-	-	22%	3%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Oisin Mullin	INT	0.2	-	-	19%	2%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Lawson Humphries	HBFR	0.1	-	-	7%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Mark O'Connor	WR	0.1	-	-	12%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Sam De Koning	FB	0.1	-	-	5%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Tom Stewart	CHB	0.1	-	-	5%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1.0
Zach Guthrie	HBFL	0.1	-	-	6%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Connor O'Sullivan	BPL	0.0	-	-	2%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Jack Henry	BPR	0.0	-	-	3%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0

Adelaide Crows

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	1+	2+	3+	4+	5+	ACTUAL
Riley Thilthorpe	FF	2.0	-	-	86%	58%	32%	14%	5%	1.0
Darcy Fogarty	FPR	1.4	-	-	76%	42%	17%	6%	2%	0.0
Josh Rachele	R	1.3	-	-	72%	37%	14%	4%	1%	1.0
Ben Keays	HFFR	1.2	-	-	70%	34%	12%	3%	1%	0.0
Izak Rankine	HFFL	1.2	-	-	70%	34%	12%	3%	1%	1.0
Luke Pedlar	INT	1.0	-	-	63%	27%	8%	2%	0%	0.0
Alex Neal-Bullen	CHF	0.7	-	-	48%	14%	3%	0%	0%	1.0
Finnbar Maley	INT	0.7	-	-	49%	15%	3%	0%	0%	0.0
Zac Taylor	FPL	0.6	-	-	44%	12%	2%	0%	0%	3.0
Brayden Cook	WL	0.4	-	-	31%	5%	1%	0%	0%	0.0
Jake Soligo	INT	0.4	-	-	30%	5%	1%	0%	0%	0.0
James Peatling	C	0.4	-	-	30%	5%	1%	0%	0%	0.0
Chayce Jones	BPR	0.3	-	-	24%	3%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Isaac Cumming	WR	0.3	-	-	28%	4%	0%	0%	0%	1.0
Lachlan McAndrew	RK	0.2	-	-	21%	2%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Luke Nankervis	INT	0.2	-	-	14%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Sam Berry	RR	0.2	-	-	21%	2%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Josh Worrell	CHB	0.1	-	-	5%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Max Michalanney	INT	0.1	-	-	14%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Wayne Milera	HBFR	0.1	-	-	7%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Hugh Bond	HBFL	0.0	-	-	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Jordon Butts	FB	0.0	-	-	4%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Nick Murray	BPL	0.0	-	-	2%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1.0