Geelong Cats v Adelaide Crows

Thu 26 Mar 2026, 7:30pm AEDT (venue time)

FINAL HIT

OUR TIPNEW MODEL

GEE by 20

GEE to win, 76% chance

GEE 76%24% ADE

BY HOW MUCH

No margin range published for this match.

RESULT

GEE by 8

HIT Actual margin 8 · 11.5 points off our margin

MATCH MODEL Tip and margin NEW MODEL 29 Mar 2026

Player predictions

Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.

Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range

Geelong Cats

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	4+	5+	6+	7+	8+	ACTUAL
Tom Stewart	CHB	6.4	-	-	88%	77%	62%	46%	32%	6.0
Zach Guthrie	HBFL	6.0	-	-	85%	72%	56%	40%	26%	4.0
Jack Henry	BPR	5.8	-	-	82%	68%	51%	35%	22%	5.0
Jeremy Cameron	FPL	5.5	-	-	80%	64%	47%	32%	19%	6.0
Max Holmes	R	5.4	-	-	79%	63%	46%	30%	18%	5.0
Connor O'Sullivan	BPL	5.0	-	-	73%	55%	38%	23%	13%	9.0
Lawson Humphries	HBFR	4.8	-	-	71%	53%	36%	22%	12%	5.0
Sam De Koning	FB	4.7	-	-	70%	51%	34%	20%	11%	12.0
Jack Martin	FPR	4.6	-	-	68%	49%	32%	19%	10%	3.0
Gryan Miers	HFFL	4.3	-	-	63%	44%	27%	15%	7%	7.0
Bailey Smith	C	4.2	-	-	60%	41%	24%	13%	6%	2.0
Oliver Dempsey	HFFR	4.0	-	-	56%	37%	21%	11%	5%	7.0
Shaun Mannagh	CHF	3.9	-	-	56%	36%	21%	10%	5%	2.0
Mark O'Connor	WR	3.8	-	-	53%	34%	19%	9%	4%	6.0
Shannon Neale	FF	3.6	-	-	48%	29%	15%	7%	3%	2.0
Mark Blicavs	WL	3.4	-	-	43%	25%	12%	6%	2%	6.0
Oliver Wiltshire	INT	3.1	-	-	38%	21%	10%	4%	2%	1.0
Oliver Henry	INT	3.0	-	-	36%	19%	9%	4%	1%	2.0
Tanner Bruhn	INT	2.9	-	-	34%	17%	8%	3%	1%	2.0
Jhye Clark	INT	2.8	-	-	31%	16%	7%	2%	1%	2.0
Oisin Mullin	INT	2.6	-	-	27%	13%	5%	2%	1%	3.0
Mitchell Edwards	RK	2.5	-	-	24%	11%	4%	2%	0%	0.0
Tom Atkins	RR	2.5	-	-	25%	11%	4%	2%	0%	1.0

Adelaide Crows

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	4+	5+	6+	7+	8+	ACTUAL
Josh Worrell	CHB	6.4	-	-	88%	76%	61%	45%	31%	5.0
Wayne Milera	HBFR	6.0	-	-	85%	72%	56%	40%	26%	4.0
Riley Thilthorpe	FF	5.2	-	-	76%	60%	42%	27%	16%	8.0
Isaac Cumming	WR	4.9	-	-	72%	54%	37%	22%	12%	1.0
Max Michalanney	INT	4.9	-	-	72%	54%	37%	22%	12%	3.0
Darcy Fogarty	FPR	4.4	-	-	65%	46%	29%	16%	8%	1.0
Jordon Butts	FB	4.1	-	-	58%	39%	23%	12%	6%	2.0
Alex Neal-Bullen	CHF	3.9	-	-	55%	35%	20%	10%	5%	3.0
Nick Murray	BPL	3.9	-	-	55%	36%	20%	10%	5%	3.0
Chayce Jones	BPR	3.8	-	-	52%	33%	18%	9%	4%	0.0
Izak Rankine	HFFL	3.6	-	-	49%	30%	16%	8%	3%	0.0
Luke Nankervis	INT	3.5	-	-	46%	27%	14%	6%	3%	2.0
Josh Rachele	R	3.4	-	-	45%	26%	13%	6%	2%	5.0
Ben Keays	HFFR	3.3	-	-	42%	24%	12%	5%	2%	2.0
Brayden Cook	WL	3.3	-	-	42%	23%	12%	5%	2%	6.0
Jake Soligo	INT	3.1	-	-	37%	20%	9%	4%	1%	4.0
Hugh Bond	HBFL	3.0	-	-	36%	19%	9%	4%	1%	1.0
Luke Pedlar	INT	2.8	-	-	30%	15%	6%	2%	1%	0.0
James Peatling	C	2.6	-	-	27%	13%	5%	2%	1%	2.0
Lachlan McAndrew	RK	2.5	-	-	23%	10%	4%	1%	0%	1.0
Sam Berry	RR	2.5	-	-	24%	11%	4%	1%	0%	3.0
Finnbar Maley	INT	2.4	-	-	23%	10%	4%	1%	0%	4.0
Zac Taylor	FPL	2.4	-	-	22%	10%	4%	1%	0%	5.0