AFL · ROUND 3 · GMHBA STADIUM
Geelong Cats v Adelaide Crows
Thu 26 Mar 2026, 7:30pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GEE by 20
GEE to win, 76% chance
GEE 76%24% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 8
HIT Actual margin 8 · 11.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holmes | R | 28.7 / 27.0 | 0.4 / 1.0 | 5.4 / 5.0 | 4.2 / 5.0 | 110 / 111 |
| Bailey Smith | C | 28.4 / 40.0 | 0.4 / 0.0 | 4.2 / 2.0 | 4.5 / 10.0 | 108 / 154 |
| Tom Atkins | RR | 21.4 / 23.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 2.5 / 1.0 | 6.7 / 8.0 | 90 / 90 |
| Tom Stewart | CHB | 20.8 / 24.0 | 0.1 / 1.0 | 6.4 / 6.0 | 1.8 / 4.0 | 87 / 109 |
| Gryan Miers | HFFL | 18.3 / 25.0 | 0.5 / 0.0 | 4.3 / 7.0 | 3.2 / 8.0 | 76 / 123 |
| Tanner Bruhn | INT | 17.4 / 15.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 2.9 / 2.0 | 4.2 / 2.0 | 69 / 53 |
| Zach Guthrie | HBFL | 17.2 / 8.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 6.0 / 4.0 | 2.2 / 4.0 | 74 / 49 |
| Oliver Dempsey | HFFR | 16.8 / 21.0 | 1.2 / 2.0 | 4.0 / 7.0 | 2.8 / 2.0 | 78 / 93 |
| Shaun Mannagh | CHF | 16.6 / 24.0 | 1.3 / 1.0 | 3.9 / 2.0 | 3.9 / 5.0 | 76 / 98 |
| Lawson Humphries | HBFR | 16.5 / 12.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 4.8 / 5.0 | 2.2 / 1.0 | 69 / 55 |
| Mark Blicavs | WL | 14.4 / 24.0 | 0.4 / 0.0 | 3.4 / 6.0 | 3.1 / 2.0 | 74 / 98 |
| Jhye Clark | INT | 13.8 / 15.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 2.8 / 2.0 | 2.8 / 5.0 | 58 / 61 |
| Jeremy Cameron | FPL | 13.1 / 11.0 | 2.6 / 0.0 | 5.5 / 6.0 | 1.9 / 3.0 | 77 / 64 |
| Jack Martin | FPR | 12.8 / 14.0 | 0.9 / 3.0 | 4.6 / 3.0 | 2.3 / 3.0 | 63 / 81 |
| Mark O'Connor | WR | 12.4 / 17.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 3.8 / 6.0 | 2.3 / 1.0 | 56 / 65 |
| Sam De Koning | FB | 12.4 / 18.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 4.7 / 12.0 | 1.7 / 1.0 | 55 / 84 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | BPL | 12.3 / 23.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 5.0 / 9.0 | 2.2 / 2.0 | 55 / 92 |
| Oliver Wiltshire | INT | 12.0 / 14.0 | 0.6 / 0.0 | 3.1 / 1.0 | 1.9 / 2.0 | 55 / 44 |
| Jack Henry | BPR | 11.8 / 10.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 5.8 / 5.0 | 1.5 / 0.0 | 53 / 41 |
| Oisin Mullin | INT | 10.6 / 13.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 2.6 / 3.0 | 2.6 / 2.0 | 46 / 54 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 10.0 / 6.0 | 0.4 / 0.0 | 2.5 / 0.0 | 2.0 / 1.0 | 56 / 29 |
| Oliver Henry | INT | 9.3 / 12.0 | 1.3 / 1.0 | 3.0 / 2.0 | 1.9 / 2.0 | 53 / 55 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 8.3 / 13.0 | 1.7 / 0.0 | 3.6 / 2.0 | 2.2 / 3.0 | 56 / 61 |
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Worrell | CHB | 23.2 / 30.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 6.4 / 5.0 | 1.5 / 2.0 | 87 / 102 |
| Jake Soligo | INT | 21.7 / 21.0 | 0.4 / 0.0 | 3.1 / 4.0 | 3.8 / 9.0 | 80 / 92 |
| Wayne Milera | HBFR | 20.9 / 19.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 6.0 / 4.0 | 2.0 / 2.0 | 81 / 68 |
| James Peatling | C | 18.6 / 22.0 | 0.4 / 0.0 | 2.6 / 2.0 | 5.0 / 4.0 | 78 / 77 |
| Izak Rankine | HFFL | 17.8 / 7.0 | 1.2 / 1.0 | 3.6 / 0.0 | 3.4 / 1.0 | 73 / 21 |
| Sam Berry | RR | 17.1 / 22.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 2.5 / 3.0 | 5.2 / 5.0 | 71 / 86 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | CHF | 16.9 / 11.0 | 0.7 / 1.0 | 3.9 / 3.0 | 3.9 / 3.0 | 72 / 55 |
| Isaac Cumming | WR | 15.5 / 10.0 | 0.3 / 1.0 | 4.9 / 1.0 | 2.3 / 5.0 | 65 / 56 |
| Max Michalanney | INT | 15.2 / 11.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 4.9 / 3.0 | 1.9 / 8.0 | 65 / 69 |
| Ben Keays | HFFR | 15.0 / 15.0 | 1.2 / 0.0 | 3.3 / 2.0 | 3.0 / 4.0 | 65 / 55 |
| Chayce Jones | BPR | 15.0 / 9.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 3.8 / 0.0 | 2.7 / 1.0 | 59 / 29 |
| Josh Rachele | R | 14.9 / 31.0 | 1.3 / 1.0 | 3.4 / 5.0 | 2.5 / 4.0 | 64 / 114 |
| Luke Nankervis | INT | 14.1 / 10.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 3.5 / 2.0 | 2.1 / 1.0 | 58 / 37 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | FF | 13.1 / 14.0 | 2.0 / 1.0 | 5.2 / 8.0 | 2.3 / 1.0 | 75 / 74 |
| Brayden Cook | WL | 12.0 / 21.0 | 0.4 / 0.0 | 3.3 / 6.0 | 1.8 / 3.0 | 52 / 83 |
| Hugh Bond | HBFL | 11.3 / 8.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 3.0 / 1.0 | 2.4 / 8.0 | 44 / 54 |
| Nick Murray | BPL | 11.3 / 12.0 | 0.0 / 1.0 | 3.9 / 3.0 | 1.6 / 4.0 | 43 / 62 |
| Darcy Fogarty | FPR | 11.2 / 7.0 | 1.4 / 0.0 | 4.4 / 1.0 | 1.6 / 4.0 | 57 / 30 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 10.5 / 17.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 2.5 / 1.0 | 2.7 / 1.0 | 63 / 92 |
| Zac Taylor | FPL | 10.5 / 7.0 | 0.6 / 3.0 | 2.4 / 5.0 | 2.5 / 0.0 | 48 / 52 |
| Luke Pedlar | INT | 9.7 / 7.0 | 1.0 / 0.0 | 2.8 / 0.0 | 2.3 / 0.0 | 47 / 19 |
| Jordon Butts | FB | 9.1 / 11.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 4.1 / 2.0 | 1.5 / 0.0 | 36 / 29 |
| Finnbar Maley | INT | 7.5 / 7.0 | 0.7 / 0.0 | 2.4 / 4.0 | 1.9 / 2.0 | 41 / 40 |