Geelong Cats v Adelaide Crows

Thu 26 Mar 2026, 7:30pm AEDT (venue time)

FINAL HIT

OUR TIPNEW MODEL

GEE by 20

GEE to win, 76% chance

GEE 76%24% ADE

BY HOW MUCH

No margin range published for this match.

RESULT

GEE by 8

HIT Actual margin 8 · 11.5 points off our margin

MATCH MODEL Tip and margin NEW MODEL 29 Mar 2026

Player predictions

Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.

Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range

Geelong Cats

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	3+	4+	5+	6+	7+	ACTUAL
Tom Atkins	RR	6.7	-	-	96%	90%	80%	66%	50%	8.0
Bailey Smith	C	4.5	-	-	82%	66%	46%	29%	17%	10.0
Max Holmes	R	4.2	-	-	79%	60%	40%	24%	13%	5.0
Tanner Bruhn	INT	4.2	-	-	79%	60%	41%	25%	13%	2.0
Shaun Mannagh	CHF	3.9	-	-	74%	54%	35%	20%	10%	5.0
Gryan Miers	HFFL	3.2	-	-	62%	40%	22%	11%	5%	8.0
Mark Blicavs	WL	3.1	-	-	60%	38%	21%	10%	4%	2.0
Jhye Clark	INT	2.8	-	-	53%	31%	15%	6%	2%	5.0
Oliver Dempsey	HFFR	2.8	-	-	53%	30%	15%	6%	2%	2.0
Oisin Mullin	INT	2.6	-	-	49%	27%	13%	5%	2%	2.0
Jack Martin	FPR	2.3	-	-	39%	19%	8%	3%	1%	3.0
Mark O'Connor	WR	2.3	-	-	41%	21%	9%	3%	1%	1.0
Connor O'Sullivan	BPL	2.2	-	-	38%	18%	7%	2%	1%	2.0
Lawson Humphries	HBFR	2.2	-	-	37%	17%	7%	2%	1%	1.0
Shannon Neale	FF	2.2	-	-	37%	18%	7%	2%	1%	3.0
Zach Guthrie	HBFL	2.2	-	-	39%	19%	8%	3%	1%	4.0
Mitchell Edwards	RK	2.0	-	-	33%	15%	6%	2%	0%	1.0
Jeremy Cameron	FPL	1.9	-	-	30%	12%	4%	1%	0%	3.0
Oliver Henry	INT	1.9	-	-	30%	12%	4%	1%	0%	2.0
Oliver Wiltshire	INT	1.9	-	-	30%	13%	5%	1%	0%	2.0
Tom Stewart	CHB	1.8	-	-	26%	10%	3%	1%	0%	4.0
Sam De Koning	FB	1.7	-	-	25%	10%	3%	1%	0%	1.0
Jack Henry	BPR	1.5	-	-	20%	7%	2%	0%	0%	0.0

Adelaide Crows

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	3+	4+	5+	6+	7+	ACTUAL
Sam Berry	RR	5.2	-	-	89%	76%	59%	41%	26%	5.0
James Peatling	C	5.0	-	-	87%	73%	56%	38%	24%	4.0
Alex Neal-Bullen	CHF	3.9	-	-	74%	54%	34%	19%	10%	3.0
Jake Soligo	INT	3.8	-	-	73%	53%	34%	19%	9%	9.0
Izak Rankine	HFFL	3.4	-	-	67%	45%	26%	14%	6%	1.0
Ben Keays	HFFR	3.0	-	-	57%	34%	18%	8%	3%	4.0
Chayce Jones	BPR	2.7	-	-	50%	28%	13%	6%	2%	1.0
Lachlan McAndrew	RK	2.7	-	-	50%	28%	14%	6%	2%	1.0
Josh Rachele	R	2.5	-	-	46%	25%	11%	4%	2%	4.0
Zac Taylor	FPL	2.5	-	-	46%	25%	11%	4%	2%	0.0
Hugh Bond	HBFL	2.4	-	-	44%	23%	10%	4%	1%	8.0
Isaac Cumming	WR	2.3	-	-	40%	20%	8%	3%	1%	5.0
Luke Pedlar	INT	2.3	-	-	40%	19%	8%	3%	1%	0.0
Riley Thilthorpe	FF	2.3	-	-	40%	20%	8%	3%	1%	1.0
Luke Nankervis	INT	2.1	-	-	35%	16%	6%	2%	1%	1.0
Wayne Milera	HBFR	2.0	-	-	32%	14%	5%	2%	0%	2.0
Finnbar Maley	INT	1.9	-	-	31%	13%	5%	2%	0%	2.0
Max Michalanney	INT	1.9	-	-	29%	12%	4%	1%	0%	8.0
Brayden Cook	WL	1.8	-	-	28%	11%	4%	1%	0%	3.0
Darcy Fogarty	FPR	1.6	-	-	22%	8%	2%	1%	0%	4.0
Nick Murray	BPL	1.6	-	-	20%	7%	2%	0%	0%	4.0
Jordon Butts	FB	1.5	-	-	18%	6%	2%	0%	0%	0.0
Josh Worrell	CHB	1.5	-	-	20%	7%	2%	0%	0%	2.0