St Kilda v Brisbane Lions

Sat 28 Mar 2026, 12:35pm AEDT (venue time)

FINAL HIT

OUR TIPNEW MODEL

BRI by 17

BRI to win, 73% chance

STK 27%73% BRI

BY HOW MUCH

No margin range published for this match.

RESULT

BRI by 33

HIT Actual margin 33 · 16.4 points off our margin

MATCH MODEL Tip and margin NEW MODEL 29 Mar 2026

Player predictions

Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.

Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range

St Kilda

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	15+	20+	25+	30+	35+	ACTUAL
Jack Sinclair	R	29.5	-	-	100%	97%	82%	49%	18%	29.0
Marcus Windhager	WL	27.4	-	-	100%	94%	70%	34%	9%	19.0
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera	HBFR	26.8	-	-	100%	93%	66%	29%	7%	29.0
Sam Flanders	RR	23.3	-	-	97%	78%	39%	10%	1%	22.0
Bradley Hill	CHB	21.7	-	-	95%	67%	27%	5%	0%	21.0
Callum Wilkie	FB	20.2	-	-	90%	55%	17%	2%	0%	24.0
Hugo Garcia	HFFL	18.3	-	-	81%	38%	8%	1%	0%	12.0
Max Hall	C	18.3	-	-	81%	38%	8%	1%	0%	17.0
Rowan Marshall	FPR	17.7	-	-	77%	32%	6%	0%	0%	12.0
Tom De Koning	RK	16.3	-	-	66%	21%	3%	0%	0%	11.0
Darcy Wilson	WR	16.1	-	-	64%	19%	2%	0%	0%	16.0
Jack Silvagni	BPL	14.6	-	-	49%	10%	1%	0%	0%	11.0
Mason Wood	CHF	14.2	-	-	45%	9%	1%	0%	0%	14.0
Jack Carroll	INT	13.8	-	-	41%	7%	0%	0%	0%	10.0
Mattaes Phillipou	INT	13.7	-	-	39%	6%	0%	0%	0%	15.0
Mitch Owens	HFFR	12.3	-	-	26%	3%	0%	0%	0%	10.0
Cooper Sharman	FF	11.5	-	-	18%	1%	0%	0%	0%	9.0
Liam Ryan	INT	11.5	-	-	18%	1%	0%	0%	0%	11.0
Liam Stocker	HBFL	11.5	-	-	18%	1%	0%	0%	0%	10.0
Dougal Howard	BPR	10.9	-	-	14%	1%	0%	0%	0%	12.0
Alix Tauru	INT	9.9	-	-	8%	0%	0%	0%	0%	3.0
Jack Higgins	FPL	9.9	-	-	8%	0%	0%	0%	0%	10.0
Dan Butler	INT	9.0	-	-	4%	0%	0%	0%	0%	9.0

Brisbane Lions

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	15+	20+	25+	30+	35+	ACTUAL
Lachie Neale	R	28.1	-	-	100%	95%	74%	38%	12%	19.0
Dayne Zorko	HBFR	26.9	-	-	100%	93%	67%	30%	8%	28.0
Will Ashcroft	C	26.7	-	-	100%	92%	65%	28%	7%	31.0
Josh Dunkley	RR	22.8	-	-	97%	75%	35%	8%	1%	24.0
Darcy Wilmot	HBFL	22.3	-	-	96%	72%	31%	7%	1%	15.0
Jaspa Fletcher	CHB	21.3	-	-	94%	64%	24%	4%	0%	17.0
Jarrod Berry	WR	20.4	-	-	91%	56%	18%	3%	0%	31.0
Zac Bailey	INT	18.8	-	-	84%	42%	10%	1%	0%	17.0
Levi Ashcroft	HFFR	17.2	-	-	74%	28%	4%	0%	0%	25.0
Keidean Coleman	BPL	16.9	-	-	71%	25%	4%	0%	0%	21.0
Ryan Lester	BPR	14.7	-	-	51%	11%	1%	0%	0%	20.0
Cam Rayner	FF	14.5	-	-	48%	10%	1%	0%	0%	12.0
Sam Draper	FPL	14.3	-	-	46%	9%	1%	0%	0%	8.0
Noah Answerth	INT	13.4	-	-	36%	5%	0%	0%	0%	8.0
Bruce Reville	WL	13.2	-	-	34%	5%	0%	0%	0%	20.0
Kai Lohmann	INT	12.6	-	-	28%	3%	0%	0%	0%	11.0
Darcy Gardiner	FB	11.7	-	-	20%	2%	0%	0%	0%	16.0
Lincoln McCarthy	INT	11.1	-	-	15%	1%	0%	0%	0%	17.0
Charlie Cameron	HFFL	10.4	-	-	10%	0%	0%	0%	0%	12.0
Darcy Fort	RK	10.3	-	-	10%	0%	0%	0%	0%	13.0
Oscar Allen	CHF	9.4	-	-	6%	0%	0%	0%	0%	11.0
Logan Morris	INT	9.3	-	-	5%	0%	0%	0%	0%	17.0
Ty Gallop	FPR	8.3	-	-	2%	0%	0%	0%	0%	6.0