St Kilda v Brisbane Lions

Sat 28 Mar 2026, 12:35pm AEDT (venue time)

FINAL HIT

OUR TIPNEW MODEL

BRI by 17

BRI to win, 73% chance

STK 27%73% BRI

BY HOW MUCH

No margin range published for this match.

RESULT

BRI by 33

HIT Actual margin 33 · 16.4 points off our margin

MATCH MODEL Tip and margin NEW MODEL 29 Mar 2026

Player predictions

Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.

Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range

St Kilda

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	70+	80+	90+	100+	110+	ACTUAL
Jack Sinclair	R	106	-	-	95%	88%	77%	60%	42%	106
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera	HBFR	103	-	-	94%	86%	73%	56%	38%	99
Marcus Windhager	WL	97	-	-	90%	79%	63%	45%	27%	78
Rowan Marshall	FPR	88	-	-	81%	65%	47%	29%	15%	56
Sam Flanders	RR	86	-	-	77%	61%	42%	25%	12%	94
Tom De Koning	RK	85	-	-	76%	60%	41%	24%	12%	56
Bradley Hill	CHB	83	-	-	73%	56%	37%	21%	10%	80
Callum Wilkie	FB	80	-	-	67%	49%	31%	17%	8%	94
Max Hall	C	80	-	-	68%	50%	31%	17%	8%	77
Hugo Garcia	HFFL	73	-	-	56%	37%	21%	10%	4%	58
Darcy Wilson	WR	68	-	-	47%	29%	15%	7%	2%	55
Mason Wood	CHF	67	-	-	45%	27%	14%	6%	2%	59
Mitch Owens	HFFR	66	-	-	43%	26%	13%	6%	2%	59
Jack Silvagni	BPL	64	-	-	38%	22%	10%	4%	1%	67
Cooper Sharman	FF	63	-	-	36%	21%	10%	4%	1%	70
Jack Carroll	INT	58	-	-	28%	15%	6%	2%	1%	53
Liam Ryan	INT	57	-	-	26%	14%	6%	2%	1%	64
Mattaes Phillipou	INT	55	-	-	24%	12%	5%	2%	0%	69
Jack Higgins	FPL	53	-	-	21%	10%	4%	1%	0%	65
Dougal Howard	BPR	51	-	-	19%	9%	3%	1%	0%	47
Liam Stocker	HBFL	51	-	-	19%	9%	3%	1%	0%	39
Dan Butler	INT	48	-	-	15%	7%	2%	1%	0%	38
Alix Tauru	INT	45	-	-	12%	5%	2%	0%	0%	16

Brisbane Lions

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	70+	80+	90+	100+	110+	ACTUAL
Dayne Zorko	HBFR	104	-	-	94%	87%	74%	57%	39%	95
Will Ashcroft	C	101	-	-	93%	84%	70%	52%	34%	120
Lachie Neale	R	98	-	-	90%	80%	64%	46%	28%	61
Josh Dunkley	RR	96	-	-	89%	77%	61%	42%	25%	91
Jarrod Berry	WR	87	-	-	79%	63%	44%	27%	14%	132
Darcy Wilmot	HBFL	84	-	-	75%	58%	40%	23%	12%	76
Sam Draper	FPL	83	-	-	74%	56%	38%	22%	10%	42
Jaspa Fletcher	CHB	82	-	-	71%	53%	34%	19%	9%	66
Zac Bailey	INT	81	-	-	70%	52%	34%	18%	8%	84
Darcy Fort	RK	73	-	-	56%	38%	22%	10%	4%	69
Keidean Coleman	BPL	70	-	-	50%	32%	17%	8%	3%	85
Cam Rayner	FF	65	-	-	41%	24%	12%	5%	2%	56
Levi Ashcroft	HFFR	65	-	-	40%	24%	12%	5%	2%	90
Ryan Lester	BPR	64	-	-	39%	23%	11%	4%	2%	87
Kai Lohmann	INT	62	-	-	35%	19%	9%	4%	1%	63
Bruce Reville	WL	58	-	-	28%	14%	6%	2%	1%	80
Charlie Cameron	HFFL	58	-	-	29%	15%	7%	2%	1%	67
Noah Answerth	INT	52	-	-	19%	9%	4%	1%	0%	22
Oscar Allen	CHF	51	-	-	18%	8%	3%	1%	0%	80
Lincoln McCarthy	INT	50	-	-	17%	8%	3%	1%	0%	56
Logan Morris	INT	50	-	-	18%	8%	3%	1%	0%	79
Ty Gallop	FPR	46	-	-	13%	6%	2%	1%	0%	22
Darcy Gardiner	FB	45	-	-	12%	5%	2%	0%	0%	60