AFL · ROUND 3 · MARVEL STADIUM
St Kilda v Brisbane Lions
Sat 28 Mar 2026, 12:35pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
BRI by 17
BRI to win, 73% chance
STK 27%73% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 33
HIT Actual margin 33 · 16.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 1.6 | - | - | 80% | 48% | 22% | 8% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Jack Higgins | FPL | 1.6 | - | - | 80% | 48% | 22% | 8% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Mitch Owens | HFFR | 1.5 | - | - | 77% | 44% | 19% | 6% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Liam Ryan | INT | 1.2 | - | - | 71% | 35% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Max Hall | C | 1.1 | - | - | 67% | 31% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Mason Wood | CHF | 0.9 | - | - | 60% | 24% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Dan Butler | INT | 0.8 | - | - | 55% | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | HBFR | 0.8 | - | - | 56% | 20% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Darcy Wilson | WR | 0.7 | - | - | 50% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | FPR | 0.7 | - | - | 48% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | INT | 0.6 | - | - | 47% | 13% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Hugo Garcia | HFFL | 0.4 | - | - | 35% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Bradley Hill | CHB | 0.3 | - | - | 22% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jack Carroll | INT | 0.3 | - | - | 26% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Sam Flanders | RR | 0.3 | - | - | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 0.3 | - | - | 25% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jack Sinclair | R | 0.2 | - | - | 22% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | WL | 0.2 | - | - | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Alix Tauru | INT | 0.1 | - | - | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 0.1 | - | - | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Liam Stocker | HBFL | 0.1 | - | - | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 0.0 | - | - | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Dougal Howard | BPR | 0.0 | - | - | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Morris | INT | 1.8 | - | - | 83% | 53% | 26% | 11% | 4% | 2.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 1.5 | - | - | 78% | 45% | 20% | 7% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 1.4 | - | - | 75% | 40% | 16% | 5% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | INT | 1.4 | - | - | 75% | 41% | 17% | 5% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Zac Bailey | INT | 1.4 | - | - | 74% | 39% | 16% | 5% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Oscar Allen | CHF | 1.3 | - | - | 72% | 36% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Lincoln McCarthy | INT | 1.1 | - | - | 68% | 31% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Sam Draper | FPL | 1.1 | - | - | 67% | 31% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Ty Gallop | FPR | 0.8 | - | - | 56% | 20% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 0.6 | - | - | 46% | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Bruce Reville | WL | 0.3 | - | - | 28% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jarrod Berry | WR | 0.3 | - | - | 29% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 0.3 | - | - | 23% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 0.3 | - | - | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | HFFR | 0.3 | - | - | 27% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 0.2 | - | - | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 0.2 | - | - | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Keidean Coleman | BPL | 0.2 | - | - | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 0.1 | - | - | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | CHB | 0.1 | - | - | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Darcy Gardiner | FB | 0.0 | - | - | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Noah Answerth | INT | 0.0 | - | - | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 0.0 | - | - | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |