AFL · ROUND 3 · MARVEL STADIUM
St Kilda v Brisbane Lions
Sat 28 Mar 2026, 12:35pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
BRI by 17
BRI to win, 73% chance
STK 27%73% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 33
HIT Actual margin 33 · 16.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 7.5 | - | - | 94% | 87% | 76% | 62% | 48% | 9.0 |
| Dougal Howard | BPR | 6.2 | - | - | 86% | 74% | 58% | 42% | 28% | 5.0 |
| Bradley Hill | CHB | 5.9 | - | - | 84% | 70% | 54% | 38% | 24% | 5.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 5.4 | - | - | 79% | 62% | 45% | 30% | 18% | 4.0 |
| Mason Wood | CHF | 5.4 | - | - | 79% | 63% | 46% | 31% | 18% | 3.0 |
| Jack Sinclair | R | 5.2 | - | - | 76% | 60% | 42% | 27% | 16% | 7.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | WL | 5.2 | - | - | 76% | 59% | 41% | 26% | 15% | 4.0 |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | HBFR | 4.9 | - | - | 72% | 55% | 37% | 23% | 13% | 2.0 |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 4.8 | - | - | 71% | 53% | 36% | 22% | 12% | 6.0 |
| Jack Carroll | INT | 4.4 | - | - | 65% | 46% | 29% | 16% | 8% | 5.0 |
| Sam Flanders | RR | 4.2 | - | - | 60% | 41% | 25% | 13% | 6% | 6.0 |
| Alix Tauru | INT | 4.0 | - | - | 56% | 37% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 1.0 |
| Darcy Wilson | WR | 3.9 | - | - | 54% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 4.0 |
| Liam Stocker | HBFL | 3.9 | - | - | 54% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 3.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | FPR | 3.9 | - | - | 55% | 36% | 20% | 10% | 5% | 5.0 |
| Liam Ryan | INT | 3.8 | - | - | 53% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 3.0 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 3.7 | - | - | 51% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1.0 |
| Mitch Owens | HFFR | 3.6 | - | - | 49% | 30% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 5.0 |
| Max Hall | C | 3.5 | - | - | 46% | 28% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 6.0 |
| Dan Butler | INT | 2.8 | - | - | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Jack Higgins | FPL | 2.7 | - | - | 29% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | INT | 2.6 | - | - | 27% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Hugo Garcia | HFFL | 2.5 | - | - | 24% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 6.3 | - | - | 87% | 75% | 59% | 43% | 29% | 3.0 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 5.9 | - | - | 84% | 70% | 54% | 38% | 24% | 9.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | CHB | 5.8 | - | - | 83% | 69% | 52% | 36% | 23% | 2.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 5.5 | - | - | 80% | 65% | 48% | 32% | 20% | 9.0 |
| Keidean Coleman | BPL | 5.5 | - | - | 80% | 65% | 48% | 32% | 19% | 7.0 |
| Jarrod Berry | WR | 5.3 | - | - | 77% | 61% | 44% | 28% | 17% | 10.0 |
| Darcy Gardiner | FB | 4.4 | - | - | 64% | 44% | 28% | 15% | 8% | 7.0 |
| Zac Bailey | INT | 4.3 | - | - | 61% | 42% | 26% | 14% | 7% | 7.0 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 4.1 | - | - | 58% | 39% | 23% | 12% | 6% | 3.0 |
| Noah Answerth | INT | 4.1 | - | - | 59% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 6% | 2.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 3.9 | - | - | 54% | 34% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 5.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | HFFR | 3.8 | - | - | 52% | 33% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 6.0 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 3.7 | - | - | 51% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 4% | 4.0 |
| Sam Draper | FPL | 3.7 | - | - | 50% | 30% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1.0 |
| Logan Morris | INT | 3.6 | - | - | 48% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 3.0 |
| Oscar Allen | CHF | 3.5 | - | - | 46% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 6.0 |
| Bruce Reville | WL | 3.4 | - | - | 43% | 25% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 7.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 3.4 | - | - | 44% | 25% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | INT | 3.2 | - | - | 39% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 2.9 | - | - | 32% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Lincoln McCarthy | INT | 2.7 | - | - | 29% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Ty Gallop | FPR | 2.6 | - | - | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 1.6 | - | - | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 5.0 |