AFL · ROUND 3 · MARVEL STADIUM
St Kilda v Brisbane Lions
Sat 28 Mar 2026, 12:35pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
BRI by 17
BRI to win, 73% chance
STK 27%73% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 33
HIT Actual margin 33 · 16.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Sinclair | R | 29.5 / 29.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 5.2 / 7.0 | 2.4 / 2.0 | 106 / 106 |
| Marcus Windhager | WL | 27.4 / 19.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 5.2 / 4.0 | 2.8 / 3.0 | 97 / 78 |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | HBFR | 26.8 / 29.0 | 0.8 / 0.0 | 4.9 / 2.0 | 2.3 / 4.0 | 103 / 99 |
| Sam Flanders | RR | 23.3 / 22.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 4.2 / 6.0 | 2.8 / 6.0 | 86 / 94 |
| Bradley Hill | CHB | 21.7 / 21.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 5.9 / 5.0 | 1.8 / 3.0 | 83 / 80 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 20.2 / 24.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 7.5 / 9.0 | 1.5 / 1.0 | 80 / 94 |
| Hugo Garcia | HFFL | 18.3 / 12.0 | 0.4 / 0.0 | 2.5 / 0.0 | 4.9 / 9.0 | 73 / 58 |
| Max Hall | C | 18.3 / 17.0 | 1.1 / 0.0 | 3.5 / 6.0 | 3.8 / 4.0 | 80 / 77 |
| Rowan Marshall | FPR | 17.7 / 12.0 | 0.7 / 0.0 | 3.9 / 5.0 | 3.9 / 2.0 | 88 / 56 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 16.3 / 11.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 3.7 / 1.0 | 2.3 / 0.0 | 85 / 56 |
| Darcy Wilson | WR | 16.1 / 16.0 | 0.7 / 0.0 | 3.9 / 4.0 | 2.4 / 1.0 | 68 / 55 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 14.6 / 11.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 5.4 / 4.0 | 1.7 / 6.0 | 64 / 67 |
| Mason Wood | CHF | 14.2 / 14.0 | 0.9 / 0.0 | 5.4 / 3.0 | 1.8 / 3.0 | 67 / 59 |
| Jack Carroll | INT | 13.8 / 10.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 4.4 / 5.0 | 1.7 / 4.0 | 58 / 53 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | INT | 13.7 / 15.0 | 0.6 / 0.0 | 2.6 / 3.0 | 2.8 / 5.0 | 55 / 69 |
| Mitch Owens | HFFR | 12.3 / 10.0 | 1.5 / 2.0 | 3.6 / 5.0 | 1.7 / 1.0 | 66 / 59 |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 11.5 / 9.0 | 1.6 / 3.0 | 4.8 / 6.0 | 1.7 / 2.0 | 63 / 70 |
| Liam Ryan | INT | 11.5 / 11.0 | 1.2 / 3.0 | 3.8 / 3.0 | 1.9 / 1.0 | 57 / 64 |
| Liam Stocker | HBFL | 11.5 / 10.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 3.9 / 3.0 | 1.8 / 2.0 | 51 / 39 |
| Dougal Howard | BPR | 10.9 / 12.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 6.2 / 5.0 | 1.6 / 0.0 | 51 / 47 |
| Alix Tauru | INT | 9.9 / 3.0 | 0.1 / 1.0 | 4.0 / 1.0 | 1.7 / 0.0 | 45 / 16 |
| Jack Higgins | FPL | 9.9 / 10.0 | 1.6 / 2.0 | 2.7 / 3.0 | 2.2 / 3.0 | 53 / 65 |
| Dan Butler | INT | 9.0 / 9.0 | 0.8 / 0.0 | 2.8 / 3.0 | 2.5 / 2.0 | 48 / 38 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Neale | R | 28.1 / 19.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 4.1 / 3.0 | 3.6 / 2.0 | 98 / 61 |
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 26.9 / 28.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 6.3 / 3.0 | 2.8 / 2.0 | 104 / 95 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 26.7 / 31.0 | 0.6 / 0.0 | 3.9 / 5.0 | 4.2 / 7.0 | 101 / 120 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 22.8 / 24.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 3.7 / 4.0 | 6.4 / 5.0 | 96 / 91 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 22.3 / 15.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 5.5 / 9.0 | 1.9 / 2.0 | 84 / 76 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | CHB | 21.3 / 17.0 | 0.1 / 1.0 | 5.8 / 2.0 | 2.0 / 2.0 | 82 / 66 |
| Jarrod Berry | WR | 20.4 / 31.0 | 0.3 / 1.0 | 5.3 / 10.0 | 2.9 / 3.0 | 87 / 132 |
| Zac Bailey | INT | 18.8 / 17.0 | 1.4 / 2.0 | 4.3 / 7.0 | 2.9 / 4.0 | 81 / 84 |
| Levi Ashcroft | HFFR | 17.2 / 25.0 | 0.3 / 1.0 | 3.8 / 6.0 | 2.2 / 1.0 | 65 / 90 |
| Keidean Coleman | BPL | 16.9 / 21.0 | 0.2 / 1.0 | 5.5 / 7.0 | 2.3 / 0.0 | 70 / 85 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 14.7 / 20.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 5.9 / 9.0 | 1.9 / 1.0 | 64 / 87 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 14.5 / 12.0 | 1.4 / 2.0 | 2.9 / 4.0 | 2.8 / 2.0 | 65 / 56 |
| Sam Draper | FPL | 14.3 / 8.0 | 1.1 / 0.0 | 3.7 / 1.0 | 2.4 / 4.0 | 83 / 42 |
| Noah Answerth | INT | 13.4 / 8.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 4.1 / 2.0 | 2.2 / 0.0 | 52 / 22 |
| Bruce Reville | WL | 13.2 / 20.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 3.4 / 7.0 | 1.9 / 2.0 | 58 / 80 |
| Kai Lohmann | INT | 12.6 / 11.0 | 1.4 / 2.0 | 3.2 / 2.0 | 3.2 / 4.0 | 62 / 63 |
| Darcy Gardiner | FB | 11.7 / 16.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 4.4 / 7.0 | 1.6 / 0.0 | 45 / 60 |
| Lincoln McCarthy | INT | 11.1 / 17.0 | 1.1 / 1.0 | 2.7 / 1.0 | 2.5 / 2.0 | 50 / 56 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 10.4 / 12.0 | 1.5 / 2.0 | 3.4 / 2.0 | 2.5 / 5.0 | 58 / 67 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 10.3 / 13.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 1.6 / 5.0 | 3.3 / 3.0 | 73 / 69 |
| Oscar Allen | CHF | 9.4 / 11.0 | 1.3 / 2.0 | 3.5 / 6.0 | 1.8 / 3.0 | 51 / 80 |
| Logan Morris | INT | 9.3 / 17.0 | 1.8 / 2.0 | 3.6 / 3.0 | 1.5 / 2.0 | 50 / 79 |
| Ty Gallop | FPR | 8.3 / 6.0 | 0.8 / 0.0 | 2.6 / 2.0 | 2.3 / 0.0 | 46 / 22 |