St Kilda v Brisbane Lions

Sat 28 Mar 2026, 12:35pm AEDT (venue time)

FINAL HIT

OUR TIPNEW MODEL

BRI by 17

BRI to win, 73% chance

STK 27%73% BRI

BY HOW MUCH

No margin range published for this match.

RESULT

BRI by 33

HIT Actual margin 33 · 16.4 points off our margin

MATCH MODEL Tip and margin NEW MODEL 29 Mar 2026

Player predictions

Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.

Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range

St Kilda

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	3+	4+	5+	6+	7+	ACTUAL
Hugo Garcia	HFFL	4.9	-	-	87%	72%	55%	37%	23%	9.0
Rowan Marshall	FPR	3.9	-	-	74%	54%	34%	19%	10%	2.0
Max Hall	C	3.8	-	-	73%	53%	34%	19%	9%	4.0
Marcus Windhager	WL	2.8	-	-	52%	30%	15%	6%	2%	3.0
Mattaes Phillipou	INT	2.8	-	-	54%	31%	16%	7%	2%	5.0
Sam Flanders	RR	2.8	-	-	53%	30%	15%	6%	2%	6.0
Dan Butler	INT	2.5	-	-	46%	25%	11%	4%	2%	2.0
Darcy Wilson	WR	2.4	-	-	42%	22%	9%	3%	1%	1.0
Jack Sinclair	R	2.4	-	-	44%	23%	10%	4%	1%	2.0
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera	HBFR	2.3	-	-	40%	19%	8%	3%	1%	4.0
Tom De Koning	RK	2.3	-	-	40%	20%	8%	3%	1%	0.0
Jack Higgins	FPL	2.2	-	-	37%	18%	7%	2%	1%	3.0
Liam Ryan	INT	1.9	-	-	29%	12%	4%	1%	0%	1.0
Bradley Hill	CHB	1.8	-	-	27%	11%	4%	1%	0%	3.0
Liam Stocker	HBFL	1.8	-	-	28%	12%	4%	1%	0%	2.0
Mason Wood	CHF	1.8	-	-	26%	10%	3%	1%	0%	3.0
Alix Tauru	INT	1.7	-	-	23%	9%	3%	1%	0%	0.0
Cooper Sharman	FF	1.7	-	-	23%	9%	3%	1%	0%	2.0
Jack Carroll	INT	1.7	-	-	24%	9%	3%	1%	0%	4.0
Jack Silvagni	BPL	1.7	-	-	24%	9%	3%	1%	0%	6.0
Mitch Owens	HFFR	1.7	-	-	25%	10%	3%	1%	0%	1.0
Dougal Howard	BPR	1.6	-	-	21%	7%	2%	0%	0%	0.0
Callum Wilkie	FB	1.5	-	-	20%	7%	2%	0%	0%	1.0

Brisbane Lions

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	3+	4+	5+	6+	7+	ACTUAL
Josh Dunkley	RR	6.4	-	-	95%	88%	76%	62%	46%	5.0
Will Ashcroft	C	4.2	-	-	79%	60%	40%	24%	13%	7.0
Lachie Neale	R	3.6	-	-	70%	49%	30%	16%	8%	2.0
Darcy Fort	RK	3.3	-	-	64%	42%	24%	12%	5%	3.0
Kai Lohmann	INT	3.2	-	-	61%	39%	21%	10%	4%	4.0
Jarrod Berry	WR	2.9	-	-	55%	33%	16%	7%	3%	3.0
Zac Bailey	INT	2.9	-	-	56%	33%	17%	8%	3%	4.0
Cam Rayner	FF	2.8	-	-	53%	31%	16%	7%	2%	2.0
Dayne Zorko	HBFR	2.8	-	-	53%	31%	15%	6%	2%	2.0
Charlie Cameron	HFFL	2.5	-	-	45%	24%	11%	4%	1%	5.0
Lincoln McCarthy	INT	2.5	-	-	46%	24%	11%	4%	1%	2.0
Sam Draper	FPL	2.4	-	-	42%	22%	9%	3%	1%	4.0
Keidean Coleman	BPL	2.3	-	-	40%	20%	8%	3%	1%	0.0
Ty Gallop	FPR	2.3	-	-	41%	20%	8%	3%	1%	0.0
Levi Ashcroft	HFFR	2.2	-	-	38%	19%	8%	3%	1%	1.0
Noah Answerth	INT	2.2	-	-	39%	19%	8%	3%	1%	0.0
Jaspa Fletcher	CHB	2.0	-	-	33%	15%	5%	2%	0%	2.0
Bruce Reville	WL	1.9	-	-	31%	13%	5%	2%	0%	2.0
Darcy Wilmot	HBFL	1.9	-	-	29%	12%	4%	1%	0%	2.0
Ryan Lester	BPR	1.9	-	-	28%	12%	4%	1%	0%	1.0
Oscar Allen	CHF	1.8	-	-	26%	10%	3%	1%	0%	3.0
Darcy Gardiner	FB	1.6	-	-	23%	8%	3%	1%	0%	0.0
Logan Morris	INT	1.5	-	-	20%	7%	2%	0%	0%	2.0