AFL · ROUND 4 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Adelaide Crows v Fremantle
Fri 3 Apr 2026, 6:45pm ACDT (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
ADE by 5
ADE to win, 57% chance
ADE 57%43% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 2
MISS Actual margin 2 · 6.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Worrell | CHB | 24.1 | - | - | 98% | 82% | 45% | 14% | 2% | 23.0 |
| Jordan Dawson | C | 22.7 | - | - | 96% | 74% | 34% | 8% | 1% | 23.0 |
| Wayne Milera | HBFR | 21.2 | - | - | 93% | 63% | 23% | 4% | 0% | 27.0 |
| James Peatling | INT | 19.9 | - | - | 89% | 52% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 26.0 |
| Sam Berry | RR | 19.2 | - | - | 86% | 46% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 21.0 |
| Izak Rankine | WL | 19.0 | - | - | 85% | 44% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Jake Soligo | FPL | 18.9 | - | - | 85% | 43% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | INT | 16.7 | - | - | 69% | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 19.0 |
| Josh Rachele | R | 16.6 | - | - | 69% | 23% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 19.0 |
| Isaac Cumming | WR | 16.1 | - | - | 64% | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 15.1 | - | - | 55% | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Ben Keays | HFFL | 14.9 | - | - | 52% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | FF | 13.7 | - | - | 40% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Taylor Walker | CHF | 13.6 | - | - | 38% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Brayden Cook | INT | 13.2 | - | - | 35% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Reilly O'Brien | INT | 12.5 | - | - | 28% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 11.9 | - | - | 22% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Darcy Fogarty | FPR | 11.2 | - | - | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Hugh Bond | HBFL | 11.2 | - | - | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |
| Nick Murray | FB | 11.2 | - | - | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Zac Taylor | INT | 10.6 | - | - | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Luke Pedlar | HFFR | 9.3 | - | - | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| James Borlase | BPL | 8.7 | - | - | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.0 |
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Serong | R | 29.0 | - | - | 100% | 97% | 79% | 45% | 15% | 32.0 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 26.2 | - | - | 99% | 91% | 62% | 25% | 6% | 25.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 24.8 | - | - | 99% | 86% | 51% | 17% | 3% | 18.0 |
| Shai Bolton | HFFL | 23.0 | - | - | 97% | 76% | 37% | 9% | 1% | 21.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | INT | 21.6 | - | - | 94% | 66% | 26% | 5% | 0% | 20.0 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 20.9 | - | - | 93% | 61% | 21% | 4% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | WR | 19.9 | - | - | 89% | 52% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 20.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RR | 19.7 | - | - | 88% | 51% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 20.0 |
| Murphy Reid | FPR | 19.0 | - | - | 85% | 44% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 26.0 |
| Karl Worner | INT | 17.2 | - | - | 73% | 28% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Jaeger O'Meara | WL | 17.1 | - | - | 73% | 27% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 16.6 | - | - | 68% | 23% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Judd McVee | HBFR | 15.4 | - | - | 58% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 23.0 |
| Corey Wagner | INT | 14.9 | - | - | 53% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Christopher Scerri | INT | 13.0 | - | - | 33% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FF | 12.8 | - | - | 31% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 12.6 | - | - | 28% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Brennan Cox | BPL | 11.7 | - | - | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Patrick Voss | CHF | 11.4 | - | - | 18% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Sean Darcy | RK | 11.0 | - | - | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 10.9 | - | - | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Jye Amiss | FPL | 9.9 | - | - | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 9.7 | - | - | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |