AFL · ROUND 4 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Adelaide Crows v Fremantle
Fri 3 Apr 2026, 6:45pm ACDT (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
ADE by 5
ADE to win, 57% chance
ADE 57%43% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 2
MISS Actual margin 2 · 6.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Dawson | C | 98 | - | - | 91% | 80% | 65% | 46% | 29% | 100 |
| Josh Worrell | CHB | 90 | - | - | 83% | 68% | 50% | 32% | 17% | 85 |
| Reilly O'Brien | INT | 87 | - | - | 78% | 62% | 44% | 27% | 14% | 31 |
| James Peatling | INT | 82 | - | - | 72% | 54% | 36% | 20% | 9% | 101 |
| Wayne Milera | HBFR | 82 | - | - | 71% | 53% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 98 |
| Izak Rankine | WL | 81 | - | - | 69% | 51% | 33% | 18% | 8% | 63 |
| Sam Berry | RR | 80 | - | - | 68% | 50% | 32% | 18% | 8% | 74 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | FF | 77 | - | - | 63% | 45% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 74 |
| Jake Soligo | FPL | 73 | - | - | 55% | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 46 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | INT | 71 | - | - | 52% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 66 |
| Josh Rachele | R | 71 | - | - | 51% | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 88 |
| Isaac Cumming | WR | 70 | - | - | 49% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | - |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 70 | - | - | 50% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 113 |
| Taylor Walker | CHF | 69 | - | - | 49% | 31% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 57 |
| Ben Keays | HFFL | 68 | - | - | 46% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 56 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 64 | - | - | 39% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 58 |
| Darcy Fogarty | FPR | 60 | - | - | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | - |
| Brayden Cook | INT | 56 | - | - | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 56 |
| Zac Taylor | INT | 50 | - | - | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 44 |
| Hugh Bond | HBFL | 47 | - | - | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 34 |
| Luke Pedlar | HFFR | 47 | - | - | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 40 |
| Nick Murray | FB | 47 | - | - | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 34 |
| James Borlase | BPL | 40 | - | - | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 25 |
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 102 | - | - | 94% | 85% | 72% | 54% | 36% | 103 |
| Caleb Serong | R | 97 | - | - | 90% | 79% | 63% | 44% | 27% | 124 |
| Luke Jackson | RR | 95 | - | - | 88% | 76% | 59% | 40% | 24% | 97 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 92 | - | - | 85% | 71% | 53% | 35% | 19% | 69 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 85 | - | - | 76% | 59% | 41% | 24% | 12% | 36 |
| Shai Bolton | HFFL | 80 | - | - | 69% | 51% | 33% | 18% | 8% | 66 |
| Josh Treacy | FF | 77 | - | - | 62% | 44% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 78 |
| Neil Erasmus | INT | 76 | - | - | 61% | 43% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 65 |
| Matthew Johnson | WR | 74 | - | - | 57% | 38% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 72 |
| Murphy Reid | FPR | 72 | - | - | 54% | 35% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 91 |
| Sean Darcy | RK | 68 | - | - | 47% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 46 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 66 | - | - | 42% | 25% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 70 |
| Jaeger O'Meara | WL | 65 | - | - | 40% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 38 |
| Karl Worner | INT | 63 | - | - | 36% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 53 |
| Judd McVee | HBFR | 60 | - | - | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 69 |
| Patrick Voss | CHF | 59 | - | - | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 76 |
| Corey Wagner | INT | 58 | - | - | 29% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 55 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 58 | - | - | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 46 |
| Christopher Scerri | INT | 52 | - | - | 19% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 16 |
| Jye Amiss | FPL | 52 | - | - | 19% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 64 |
| Brennan Cox | BPL | 48 | - | - | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 57 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 46 | - | - | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 46 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 46 | - | - | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 40 |