AFL · ROUND 4 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Adelaide Crows v Fremantle
Fri 3 Apr 2026, 6:45pm ACDT (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
ADE by 5
ADE to win, 57% chance
ADE 57%43% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 2
MISS Actual margin 2 · 6.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley Thilthorpe | FF | 1.8 | - | - | 84% | 55% | 28% | 12% | 4% | 1.0 |
| Taylor Walker | CHF | 1.7 | - | - | 82% | 52% | 25% | 10% | 3% | 1.0 |
| Darcy Fogarty | FPR | 1.5 | - | - | 78% | 44% | 19% | 7% | 2% | - |
| Ben Keays | HFFL | 1.2 | - | - | 68% | 32% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Josh Rachele | R | 1.2 | - | - | 70% | 33% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Izak Rankine | WL | 1.1 | - | - | 66% | 29% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Luke Pedlar | HFFR | 1.0 | - | - | 62% | 25% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | INT | 0.6 | - | - | 46% | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Jake Soligo | FPL | 0.6 | - | - | 44% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| James Peatling | INT | 0.6 | - | - | 46% | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Jordan Dawson | C | 0.6 | - | - | 43% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Zac Taylor | INT | 0.6 | - | - | 45% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Brayden Cook | INT | 0.4 | - | - | 32% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Isaac Cumming | WR | 0.3 | - | - | 26% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 0.3 | - | - | 23% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Sam Berry | RR | 0.3 | - | - | 25% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Reilly O'Brien | INT | 0.2 | - | - | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| James Borlase | BPL | 0.1 | - | - | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 0.1 | - | - | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Wayne Milera | HBFR | 0.1 | - | - | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Hugh Bond | HBFL | 0.0 | - | - | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Josh Worrell | CHB | 0.0 | - | - | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Nick Murray | FB | 0.0 | - | - | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Treacy | FF | 2.4 | - | - | 91% | 70% | 44% | 23% | 10% | 2.0 |
| Patrick Voss | CHF | 2.1 | - | - | 88% | 62% | 35% | 16% | 6% | 2.0 |
| Jye Amiss | FPL | 1.8 | - | - | 83% | 53% | 26% | 10% | 3% | 4.0 |
| Shai Bolton | HFFL | 1.6 | - | - | 79% | 47% | 21% | 8% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 1.3 | - | - | 72% | 36% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Murphy Reid | FPR | 1.1 | - | - | 68% | 31% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RR | 1.0 | - | - | 63% | 26% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 0.8 | - | - | 56% | 20% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Christopher Scerri | INT | 0.6 | - | - | 44% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 0.5 | - | - | 41% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Caleb Serong | R | 0.5 | - | - | 39% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | WR | 0.4 | - | - | 31% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | INT | 0.4 | - | - | 30% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Corey Wagner | INT | 0.2 | - | - | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jaeger O'Meara | WL | 0.2 | - | - | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 0.2 | - | - | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Sean Darcy | RK | 0.2 | - | - | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 0.1 | - | - | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Judd McVee | HBFR | 0.1 | - | - | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Karl Worner | INT | 0.1 | - | - | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 0.0 | - | - | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Brennan Cox | BPL | 0.0 | - | - | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 0.0 | - | - | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |