Brisbane Lions v Collingwood

Thu 2 Apr 2026, 6:30pm AEST (venue time)

FINAL HIT

OUR TIP

BRI by 11

BRI to win, 65% chance

BRI 65%35% COL

BY HOW MUCH

No margin range published for this match.

RESULT

BRI by 54

HIT Actual margin 54 · 43.0 points off our margin

MATCH MODEL Tip and margin 29 Mar 2026

Player predictions

Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.

Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range

Brisbane Lions

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	15+	20+	25+	30+	35+	ACTUAL
Will Ashcroft	C	28.7	-	-	100%	96%	78%	43%	14%	36.0
Lachie Neale	R	28.1	-	-	100%	95%	75%	38%	12%	29.0
Dayne Zorko	HBFR	27.9	-	-	100%	95%	74%	37%	11%	28.0
Josh Dunkley	RR	24.0	-	-	98%	82%	44%	13%	2%	23.0
Darcy Wilmot	HBFL	22.7	-	-	96%	74%	34%	8%	1%	21.0
Zac Bailey	INT	22.4	-	-	96%	72%	32%	7%	1%	25.0
Jaspa Fletcher	CHB	21.6	-	-	94%	67%	26%	5%	0%	27.0
Jarrod Berry	WR	21.2	-	-	93%	63%	23%	4%	0%	20.0
Keidean Coleman	BPL	18.8	-	-	84%	42%	10%	1%	0%	22.0
Levi Ashcroft	HFFR	18.1	-	-	80%	36%	7%	1%	0%	25.0
Cam Rayner	FF	15.6	-	-	60%	16%	2%	0%	0%	17.0
Bruce Reville	WL	15.5	-	-	58%	15%	2%	0%	0%	15.0
Ryan Lester	BPR	14.8	-	-	51%	11%	1%	0%	0%	19.0
Kai Lohmann	INT	13.4	-	-	36%	5%	0%	0%	0%	13.0
Sam Draper	FPL	13.4	-	-	37%	6%	0%	0%	0%	18.0
James Tunstill	INT	12.5	-	-	28%	3%	0%	0%	0%	5.0
Charlie Cameron	HFFL	12.2	-	-	24%	2%	0%	0%	0%	11.0
Darragh Joyce	FB	12.0	-	-	22%	2%	0%	0%	0%	10.0
Lincoln McCarthy	INT	11.4	-	-	18%	1%	0%	0%	0%	10.0
Oscar Allen	CHF	11.0	-	-	14%	1%	0%	0%	0%	9.0
Logan Morris	INT	10.9	-	-	14%	1%	0%	0%	0%	20.0
Darcy Fort	RK	10.4	-	-	11%	0%	0%	0%	0%	13.0
Ty Gallop	FPR	9.4	-	-	6%	0%	0%	0%	0%	9.0

Collingwood

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	15+	20+	25+	30+	35+	ACTUAL
Nick Daicos	C	33.6	-	-	100%	100%	95%	76%	43%	-
Josh Daicos	CHB	29.2	-	-	100%	97%	81%	47%	16%	25.0
Dan Houston	HBFL	22.0	-	-	95%	70%	29%	6%	1%	32.0
Jack Crisp	WL	21.4	-	-	94%	65%	25%	5%	0%	15.0
Steele Sidebottom	WR	19.2	-	-	86%	46%	12%	1%	0%	11.0
Jordan De Goey	CHF	18.5	-	-	82%	39%	8%	1%	0%	15.0
Brayden Maynard	BPR	18.3	-	-	81%	38%	8%	1%	0%	24.0
Ned Long	RR	17.5	-	-	76%	31%	5%	0%	0%	22.0
Patrick Lipinski	R	17.4	-	-	75%	29%	5%	0%	0%	12.0
Harry Perryman	HBFR	16.9	-	-	71%	26%	4%	0%	0%	12.0
Darcy Cameron	INT	16.8	-	-	70%	25%	4%	0%	0%	9.0
Isaac Quaynor	INT	15.6	-	-	59%	16%	2%	0%	0%	12.0
Lachie Schultz	HFFL	14.4	-	-	47%	10%	1%	0%	0%	10.0
Beau McCreery	HFFR	14.2	-	-	45%	8%	1%	0%	0%	12.0
Lachlan Sullivan	INT	13.4	-	-	36%	5%	0%	0%	0%	11.0
Jeremy Howe	FB	11.8	-	-	21%	2%	0%	0%	0%	13.0
Roan Steele	INT	11.7	-	-	20%	2%	0%	0%	0%	13.0
Jamie Elliott	FPL	11.6	-	-	19%	2%	0%	0%	0%	10.0
Billy Frampton	BPL	11.2	-	-	16%	1%	0%	0%	0%	6.0
Oscar Steene	RK	10.0	-	-	8%	0%	0%	0%	0%	10.0
Tim Membrey	FF	9.2	-	-	5%	0%	0%	0%	0%	9.0
Daniel McStay	FPR	9.1	-	-	4%	0%	0%	0%	0%	8.0
William Hayes	INT	8.7	-	-	3%	0%	0%	0%	0%	5.0