AFL · ROUND 4 · GABBA
Brisbane Lions v Collingwood
Thu 2 Apr 2026, 6:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
BRI by 11
BRI to win, 65% chance
BRI 65%35% COL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 54
HIT Actual margin 54 · 43.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 106 | - | - | 96% | 89% | 77% | 61% | 42% | 116 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 102 | - | - | 93% | 85% | 71% | 54% | 35% | 127 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 100 | - | - | 92% | 83% | 68% | 50% | 32% | 79 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 100 | - | - | 92% | 82% | 67% | 49% | 31% | 119 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 90 | - | - | 83% | 69% | 51% | 32% | 18% | 77 |
| Zac Bailey | INT | 89 | - | - | 82% | 67% | 48% | 30% | 16% | 112 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | CHB | 85 | - | - | 76% | 60% | 41% | 24% | 12% | 97 |
| Jarrod Berry | WR | 83 | - | - | 72% | 55% | 36% | 21% | 10% | 84 |
| Sam Draper | FPL | 79 | - | - | 66% | 48% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 69 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 76 | - | - | 61% | 43% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 48 |
| Keidean Coleman | BPL | 74 | - | - | 57% | 38% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 109 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 72 | - | - | 55% | 36% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 68 |
| Levi Ashcroft | HFFR | 69 | - | - | 49% | 31% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 91 |
| Kai Lohmann | INT | 64 | - | - | 39% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 75 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 64 | - | - | 39% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 81 |
| Bruce Reville | WL | 63 | - | - | 36% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 78 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 63 | - | - | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 45 |
| Logan Morris | INT | 60 | - | - | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 103 |
| Lincoln McCarthy | INT | 55 | - | - | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 59 |
| Darragh Joyce | FB | 54 | - | - | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 50 |
| Oscar Allen | CHF | 54 | - | - | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 65 |
| James Tunstill | INT | 52 | - | - | 20% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 28 |
| Ty Gallop | FPR | 47 | - | - | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 48 |
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | C | 111 | - | - | 97% | 93% | 84% | 70% | 52% | - |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 98 | - | - | 90% | 80% | 64% | 45% | 28% | 78 |
| Darcy Cameron | INT | 84 | - | - | 74% | 57% | 39% | 22% | 11% | 50 |
| Jack Crisp | WL | 81 | - | - | 70% | 53% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 82 |
| Dan Houston | HBFL | 78 | - | - | 66% | 47% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 106 |
| Ned Long | RR | 75 | - | - | 60% | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 67 |
| Brayden Maynard | BPR | 70 | - | - | 51% | 32% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 80 |
| Steele Sidebottom | WR | 70 | - | - | 51% | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 35 |
| Jordan De Goey | CHF | 68 | - | - | 45% | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 70 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFL | 68 | - | - | 47% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 51 |
| Patrick Lipinski | R | 68 | - | - | 46% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 38 |
| Harry Perryman | HBFR | 64 | - | - | 40% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 50 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFR | 62 | - | - | 34% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 42 |
| Isaac Quaynor | INT | 61 | - | - | 34% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 40 |
| Jamie Elliott | FPL | 61 | - | - | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 49 |
| Lachlan Sullivan | INT | 54 | - | - | 22% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 37 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 52 | - | - | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 53 |
| Oscar Steene | RK | 52 | - | - | 20% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 46 |
| Daniel McStay | FPR | 50 | - | - | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 61 |
| Roan Steele | INT | 49 | - | - | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 53 |
| Tim Membrey | FF | 49 | - | - | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 44 |
| William Hayes | INT | 43 | - | - | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 21 |
| Billy Frampton | BPL | 42 | - | - | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 40 |