AFL · ROUND 4 · GABBA
Brisbane Lions v Collingwood
Thu 2 Apr 2026, 6:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
BRI by 11
BRI to win, 65% chance
BRI 65%35% COL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 54
HIT Actual margin 54 · 43.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Morris | INT | 2.0 | - | - | 86% | 59% | 32% | 14% | 5% | 3.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 1.8 | - | - | 83% | 52% | 26% | 10% | 3% | 0.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 1.6 | - | - | 80% | 48% | 22% | 8% | 2% | 0.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | INT | 1.5 | - | - | 79% | 46% | 20% | 7% | 2% | 4.0 |
| Zac Bailey | INT | 1.5 | - | - | 78% | 44% | 19% | 6% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Oscar Allen | CHF | 1.4 | - | - | 76% | 42% | 18% | 6% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Lincoln McCarthy | INT | 1.1 | - | - | 68% | 31% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Sam Draper | FPL | 0.9 | - | - | 58% | 22% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Ty Gallop | FPR | 0.9 | - | - | 60% | 24% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 0.6 | - | - | 48% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Bruce Reville | WL | 0.5 | - | - | 39% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| James Tunstill | INT | 0.4 | - | - | 34% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jarrod Berry | WR | 0.4 | - | - | 31% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 0.3 | - | - | 26% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 0.3 | - | - | 25% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | HFFR | 0.3 | - | - | 27% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 0.2 | - | - | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 0.2 | - | - | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 0.1 | - | - | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | CHB | 0.1 | - | - | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Keidean Coleman | BPL | 0.1 | - | - | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Darragh Joyce | FB | 0.0 | - | - | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 0.0 | - | - | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Elliott | FPL | 2.0 | - | - | 87% | 60% | 33% | 14% | 5% | 1.0 |
| Tim Membrey | FF | 1.5 | - | - | 78% | 44% | 19% | 6% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFL | 1.2 | - | - | 71% | 35% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Daniel McStay | FPR | 1.0 | - | - | 63% | 26% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFR | 0.7 | - | - | 52% | 17% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | CHF | 0.7 | - | - | 52% | 17% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Nick Daicos | C | 0.7 | - | - | 51% | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | - |
| William Hayes | INT | 0.7 | - | - | 49% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Patrick Lipinski | R | 0.6 | - | - | 44% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Lachlan Sullivan | INT | 0.5 | - | - | 38% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | INT | 0.4 | - | - | 35% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jack Crisp | WL | 0.4 | - | - | 30% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Oscar Steene | RK | 0.4 | - | - | 34% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Roan Steele | INT | 0.4 | - | - | 34% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Steele Sidebottom | WR | 0.4 | - | - | 32% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Ned Long | RR | 0.3 | - | - | 26% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Dan Houston | HBFL | 0.1 | - | - | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Harry Perryman | HBFR | 0.1 | - | - | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 0.1 | - | - | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 0.1 | - | - | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Billy Frampton | BPL | 0.0 | - | - | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Brayden Maynard | BPR | 0.0 | - | - | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Isaac Quaynor | INT | 0.0 | - | - | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |