AFL · ROUND 4 · GABBA
Brisbane Lions v Collingwood
Thu 2 Apr 2026, 6:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
BRI by 11
BRI to win, 65% chance
BRI 65%35% COL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 54
HIT Actual margin 54 · 43.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 7.3 | - | - | 93% | 85% | 73% | 59% | 44% | 9.0 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 6.6 | - | - | 89% | 78% | 64% | 48% | 34% | 9.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 6.5 | - | - | 89% | 78% | 64% | 48% | 33% | 7.0 |
| Keidean Coleman | BPL | 6.3 | - | - | 87% | 75% | 60% | 44% | 29% | 10.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | CHB | 6.0 | - | - | 85% | 72% | 56% | 40% | 26% | 10.0 |
| Jarrod Berry | WR | 5.5 | - | - | 80% | 64% | 47% | 31% | 19% | 6.0 |
| Darragh Joyce | FB | 5.2 | - | - | 76% | 59% | 41% | 26% | 15% | 7.0 |
| Zac Bailey | INT | 4.7 | - | - | 69% | 50% | 33% | 20% | 10% | 7.0 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 4.6 | - | - | 68% | 49% | 32% | 18% | 10% | 5.0 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 4.4 | - | - | 63% | 44% | 27% | 15% | 8% | 8.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 4.4 | - | - | 63% | 44% | 27% | 15% | 8% | 6.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 4.2 | - | - | 61% | 42% | 26% | 14% | 7% | 3.0 |
| Logan Morris | INT | 4.2 | - | - | 61% | 42% | 25% | 14% | 7% | 9.0 |
| Bruce Reville | WL | 4.0 | - | - | 57% | 37% | 22% | 11% | 5% | 8.0 |
| Oscar Allen | CHF | 4.0 | - | - | 56% | 37% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 5.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 3.8 | - | - | 53% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 6.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | HFFR | 3.8 | - | - | 53% | 33% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 7.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | INT | 3.6 | - | - | 49% | 30% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 2.0 |
| Sam Draper | FPL | 3.6 | - | - | 48% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 6.0 |
| James Tunstill | INT | 3.4 | - | - | 44% | 25% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 4.0 |
| Lincoln McCarthy | INT | 3.0 | - | - | 35% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 6.0 |
| Ty Gallop | FPR | 3.0 | - | - | 36% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 8.0 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 2.0 | - | - | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 5.7 | - | - | 82% | 67% | 50% | 34% | 21% | 2.0 |
| Brayden Maynard | BPR | 5.6 | - | - | 82% | 66% | 50% | 34% | 21% | 4.0 |
| Dan Houston | HBFL | 5.3 | - | - | 78% | 61% | 44% | 29% | 17% | 6.0 |
| Isaac Quaynor | INT | 5.2 | - | - | 76% | 60% | 42% | 27% | 16% | 1.0 |
| Harry Perryman | HBFR | 5.0 | - | - | 74% | 56% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 1.0 |
| Billy Frampton | BPL | 4.9 | - | - | 73% | 55% | 37% | 23% | 13% | 3.0 |
| Jamie Elliott | FPL | 4.9 | - | - | 72% | 54% | 37% | 22% | 12% | 5.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | INT | 4.8 | - | - | 71% | 53% | 35% | 21% | 12% | 2.0 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFL | 4.7 | - | - | 68% | 50% | 32% | 19% | 10% | 2.0 |
| Jack Crisp | WL | 4.6 | - | - | 67% | 48% | 31% | 18% | 9% | 5.0 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 4.6 | - | - | 67% | 48% | 31% | 18% | 9% | 4.0 |
| Steele Sidebottom | WR | 4.6 | - | - | 68% | 50% | 32% | 19% | 10% | 3.0 |
| Nick Daicos | C | 4.2 | - | - | 60% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 6% | - |
| Patrick Lipinski | R | 4.0 | - | - | 56% | 37% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2.0 |
| Tim Membrey | FF | 3.9 | - | - | 56% | 36% | 21% | 10% | 5% | 4.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | CHF | 3.3 | - | - | 42% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 5.0 |
| Daniel McStay | FPR | 3.1 | - | - | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 4.0 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFR | 2.8 | - | - | 31% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Roan Steele | INT | 2.8 | - | - | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 5.0 |
| William Hayes | INT | 2.6 | - | - | 26% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Oscar Steene | RK | 2.5 | - | - | 23% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 5.0 |
| Ned Long | RR | 2.4 | - | - | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Lachlan Sullivan | INT | 2.2 | - | - | 18% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |