Brisbane Lions v Collingwood

Thu 2 Apr 2026, 6:30pm AEST (venue time)

FINAL HIT

OUR TIP

BRI by 11

BRI to win, 65% chance

BRI 65%35% COL

BY HOW MUCH

No margin range published for this match.

RESULT

BRI by 54

HIT Actual margin 54 · 43.0 points off our margin

MATCH MODEL Tip and margin 29 Mar 2026

Player predictions

Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.

Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range

Brisbane Lions

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	3+	4+	5+	6+	7+	ACTUAL
Josh Dunkley	RR	6.1	-	-	94%	86%	73%	57%	41%	3.0
Will Ashcroft	C	3.9	-	-	75%	55%	35%	20%	10%	1.0
Lachie Neale	R	3.7	-	-	71%	50%	30%	16%	8%	5.0
Darcy Fort	RK	3.3	-	-	64%	42%	23%	12%	5%	1.0
Kai Lohmann	INT	3.0	-	-	58%	36%	19%	9%	4%	3.0
Zac Bailey	INT	3.0	-	-	58%	36%	19%	9%	4%	3.0
Cam Rayner	FF	2.9	-	-	54%	32%	16%	7%	3%	2.0
Jarrod Berry	WR	2.7	-	-	52%	29%	14%	6%	2%	3.0
Charlie Cameron	HFFL	2.6	-	-	48%	26%	12%	5%	2%	1.0
Dayne Zorko	HBFR	2.6	-	-	49%	27%	13%	5%	2%	1.0
Levi Ashcroft	HFFR	2.5	-	-	45%	24%	10%	4%	1%	1.0
Lincoln McCarthy	INT	2.5	-	-	46%	25%	11%	4%	2%	0.0
Sam Draper	FPL	2.3	-	-	41%	21%	9%	3%	1%	0.0
Bruce Reville	WL	2.2	-	-	38%	19%	8%	3%	1%	1.0
Darcy Wilmot	HBFL	2.2	-	-	38%	18%	7%	2%	1%	0.0
Ty Gallop	FPR	2.2	-	-	38%	19%	8%	3%	1%	0.0
Jaspa Fletcher	CHB	2.1	-	-	35%	16%	6%	2%	1%	0.0
James Tunstill	INT	2.0	-	-	32%	14%	5%	2%	0%	0.0
Keidean Coleman	BPL	2.0	-	-	33%	15%	6%	2%	0%	5.0
Logan Morris	INT	1.9	-	-	29%	12%	4%	1%	0%	1.0
Ryan Lester	BPR	1.8	-	-	27%	11%	4%	1%	0%	1.0
Darragh Joyce	FB	1.7	-	-	23%	9%	3%	1%	0%	0.0
Oscar Allen	CHF	1.7	-	-	24%	9%	3%	1%	0%	1.0

Collingwood

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	3+	4+	5+	6+	7+	ACTUAL
Ned Long	RR	5.9	-	-	93%	84%	70%	53%	37%	3.0
Jack Crisp	WL	4.4	-	-	82%	65%	46%	29%	16%	7.0
Beau McCreery	HFFR	3.9	-	-	74%	54%	34%	20%	10%	4.0
Nick Daicos	C	3.8	-	-	73%	53%	33%	18%	9%	-
Lachie Schultz	HFFL	3.5	-	-	68%	46%	27%	14%	6%	3.0
Darcy Cameron	INT	2.9	-	-	55%	32%	16%	7%	3%	1.0
Lachlan Sullivan	INT	2.9	-	-	55%	33%	17%	7%	3%	0.0
Steele Sidebottom	WR	2.9	-	-	55%	33%	17%	7%	3%	0.0
Jordan De Goey	CHF	2.5	-	-	45%	24%	11%	4%	1%	3.0
Patrick Lipinski	R	2.5	-	-	45%	24%	10%	4%	1%	2.0
Josh Daicos	CHB	2.4	-	-	42%	22%	9%	3%	1%	2.0
Brayden Maynard	BPR	2.2	-	-	39%	19%	8%	3%	1%	1.0
Harry Perryman	HBFR	2.2	-	-	37%	18%	7%	2%	1%	4.0
Roan Steele	INT	2.2	-	-	38%	18%	7%	2%	1%	0.0
Dan Houston	HBFL	2.1	-	-	35%	16%	6%	2%	1%	2.0
Daniel McStay	FPR	2.1	-	-	35%	16%	6%	2%	1%	1.0
William Hayes	INT	2.1	-	-	34%	16%	6%	2%	0%	0.0
Isaac Quaynor	INT	2.0	-	-	33%	15%	5%	2%	0%	2.0
Jamie Elliott	FPL	2.0	-	-	33%	15%	5%	2%	0%	1.0
Oscar Steene	RK	1.9	-	-	31%	13%	5%	2%	0%	0.0
Jeremy Howe	FB	1.7	-	-	25%	10%	3%	1%	0%	1.0
Tim Membrey	FF	1.7	-	-	24%	9%	3%	1%	0%	1.0
Billy Frampton	BPL	1.6	-	-	22%	8%	2%	1%	0%	4.0