Hawthorn v Geelong Cats

Mon 6 Apr 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)

FINAL MISS

OUR TIP

GEE by 4

GEE to win, 57% chance

HAW 43%57% GEE

BY HOW MUCH

No margin range published for this match.

RESULT

HAW by 1

MISS Actual margin 1 · 4.6 points off our margin

MATCH MODEL Tip and margin 29 Mar 2026

Player predictions

Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.

Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range

Hawthorn

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	15+	20+	25+	30+	35+	ACTUAL
Jai Newcombe	RR	24.0	-	-	98%	82%	44%	13%	2%	25.0
Josh Ward	R	21.6	-	-	94%	67%	26%	5%	0%	29.0
James Sicily	CHB	20.7	-	-	92%	59%	20%	3%	0%	20.0
Dylan Moore	FPL	20.6	-	-	92%	58%	19%	3%	0%	18.0
Jarman Impey	BPR	20.5	-	-	91%	57%	18%	3%	0%	26.0
Conor Nash	INT	19.1	-	-	86%	45%	11%	1%	0%	17.0
Jack Ginnivan	HFFL	18.2	-	-	80%	36%	7%	1%	0%	19.0
Josh Battle	HBFL	18.0	-	-	79%	35%	7%	1%	0%	15.0
Connor Macdonald	FF	17.8	-	-	78%	33%	6%	0%	0%	26.0
Massimo D'Ambrosio	WL	17.6	-	-	76%	31%	6%	0%	0%	23.0
Flynn Perez	WR	16.6	-	-	69%	24%	3%	0%	0%	13.0
Blake Hardwick	HBFR	16.4	-	-	67%	22%	3%	0%	0%	15.0
Jack Scrimshaw	BPL	16.3	-	-	66%	21%	3%	0%	0%	13.0
Josh Weddle	INT	16.2	-	-	65%	20%	2%	0%	0%	13.0
Jack Dalton	C	14.3	-	-	47%	9%	1%	0%	0%	10.0
Lloyd Meek	INT	12.9	-	-	32%	4%	0%	0%	0%	9.0
Nick Watson	HFFR	12.5	-	-	28%	3%	0%	0%	0%	13.0
Jack Gunston	FPR	11.1	-	-	15%	1%	0%	0%	0%	14.0
Mabior Chol	CHF	10.8	-	-	13%	1%	0%	0%	0%	12.0
Sam Butler	INT	10.2	-	-	9%	0%	0%	0%	0%	19.0
Tom Barrass	FB	9.8	-	-	7%	0%	0%	0%	0%	17.0
Mitch Lewis	INT	9.2	-	-	5%	0%	0%	0%	0%	11.0
Ned Reeves	RK	8.5	-	-	3%	0%	0%	0%	0%	10.0

Geelong Cats

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	15+	20+	25+	30+	35+	ACTUAL
Bailey Smith	C	30.7	-	-	100%	98%	87%	58%	24%	33.0
Max Holmes	R	30.3	-	-	100%	98%	86%	55%	22%	27.0
Gryan Miers	INT	22.4	-	-	96%	72%	32%	7%	1%	22.0
Tom Atkins	RR	21.5	-	-	94%	65%	25%	5%	0%	12.0
Tom Stewart	CHB	21.3	-	-	94%	64%	24%	4%	0%	22.0
Tanner Bruhn	INT	17.8	-	-	78%	33%	6%	0%	0%	26.0
Oliver Dempsey	WR	17.5	-	-	76%	31%	5%	0%	0%	12.0
Jack Bowes	INT	17.2	-	-	74%	28%	5%	0%	0%	13.0
Zach Guthrie	INT	16.8	-	-	70%	25%	4%	0%	0%	19.0
Lawson Humphries	HBFL	16.7	-	-	69%	24%	3%	0%	0%	20.0
Shaun Mannagh	CHF	15.8	-	-	61%	17%	2%	0%	0%	6.0
Mark Blicavs	WL	14.6	-	-	50%	10%	1%	0%	0%	14.0
Jeremy Cameron	FPR	14.3	-	-	46%	9%	1%	0%	0%	16.0
Sam De Koning	BPL	12.2	-	-	24%	2%	0%	0%	0%	10.0
Connor O'Sullivan	BPR	12.1	-	-	23%	2%	0%	0%	0%	13.0
Brad Close	INT	11.9	-	-	22%	2%	0%	0%	0%	9.0
Jack Henry	FB	11.9	-	-	22%	2%	0%	0%	0%	7.0
Jack Martin	HFFL	11.6	-	-	19%	2%	0%	0%	0%	11.0
Oisin Mullin	HBFR	11.4	-	-	18%	1%	0%	0%	0%	16.0
Oliver Wiltshire	HFFR	10.1	-	-	9%	0%	0%	0%	0%	11.0
Oliver Henry	FPL	10.0	-	-	8%	0%	0%	0%	0%	7.0
Mitchell Edwards	RK	9.8	-	-	7%	0%	0%	0%	0%	10.0
Shannon Neale	FF	8.8	-	-	4%	0%	0%	0%	0%	6.0