AFL · ROUND 4 · MCG
Hawthorn v Geelong Cats
Mon 6 Apr 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
GEE by 4
GEE to win, 57% chance
HAW 43%57% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 1
MISS Actual margin 1 · 4.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 86 | - | - | 78% | 62% | 43% | 26% | 13% | 76 |
| Dylan Moore | FPL | 85 | - | - | 76% | 59% | 40% | 23% | 12% | 78 |
| James Sicily | CHB | 84 | - | - | 75% | 58% | 40% | 23% | 11% | 66 |
| Lloyd Meek | INT | 82 | - | - | 72% | 54% | 36% | 20% | 10% | 63 |
| Josh Ward | R | 80 | - | - | 68% | 50% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 105 |
| Jarman Impey | BPR | 79 | - | - | 66% | 48% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 87 |
| Conor Nash | INT | 75 | - | - | 60% | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 74 |
| Jack Ginnivan | HFFL | 75 | - | - | 60% | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 90 |
| Connor Macdonald | FF | 73 | - | - | 56% | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 106 |
| Jack Scrimshaw | BPL | 70 | - | - | 50% | 32% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 36 |
| Josh Battle | HBFL | 70 | - | - | 51% | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 54 |
| Blake Hardwick | HBFR | 66 | - | - | 42% | 25% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 65 |
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 66 | - | - | 43% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 78 |
| Josh Weddle | INT | 66 | - | - | 43% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 37 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WL | 65 | - | - | 40% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 97 |
| Flynn Perez | WR | 64 | - | - | 39% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 58 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 63 | - | - | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 65 |
| Ned Reeves | RK | 63 | - | - | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 58 |
| Nick Watson | HFFR | 58 | - | - | 29% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 63 |
| Jack Dalton | C | 56 | - | - | 25% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 30 |
| Mitch Lewis | INT | 54 | - | - | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 68 |
| Sam Butler | INT | 48 | - | - | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 77 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 42 | - | - | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 72 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holmes | R | 110 | - | - | 97% | 92% | 83% | 68% | 50% | 108 |
| Bailey Smith | C | 108 | - | - | 96% | 91% | 81% | 66% | 47% | 124 |
| Tom Atkins | RR | 85 | - | - | 76% | 60% | 41% | 24% | 12% | 31 |
| Gryan Miers | INT | 84 | - | - | 74% | 57% | 38% | 22% | 11% | 85 |
| Tom Stewart | CHB | 83 | - | - | 73% | 55% | 37% | 21% | 10% | 93 |
| Jeremy Cameron | FPR | 75 | - | - | 59% | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 84 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WR | 72 | - | - | 53% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 50 |
| Shaun Mannagh | CHF | 72 | - | - | 53% | 35% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 31 |
| Jack Bowes | INT | 70 | - | - | 50% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 73 |
| Mark Blicavs | WL | 69 | - | - | 48% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 74 |
| Tanner Bruhn | INT | 68 | - | - | 46% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 89 |
| Zach Guthrie | INT | 67 | - | - | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 83 |
| Lawson Humphries | HBFL | 66 | - | - | 43% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 98 |
| Jack Martin | HFFL | 58 | - | - | 29% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 61 |
| Brad Close | INT | 55 | - | - | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 34 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 52 | - | - | 19% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 57 |
| Oliver Henry | FPL | 52 | - | - | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 48 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 52 | - | - | 20% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 63 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | BPR | 51 | - | - | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 62 |
| Jack Henry | FB | 50 | - | - | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 34 |
| Sam De Koning | BPL | 48 | - | - | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 44 |
| Oisin Mullin | HBFR | 46 | - | - | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 57 |
| Oliver Wiltshire | HFFR | 46 | - | - | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 42 |