AFL · ROUND 4 · MCG
Hawthorn v Geelong Cats
Mon 6 Apr 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
GEE by 4
GEE to win, 57% chance
HAW 43%57% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 1
MISS Actual margin 1 · 4.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 2.5 | - | - | 92% | 72% | 46% | 25% | 11% | 3.0 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 1.6 | - | - | 80% | 48% | 22% | 8% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | INT | 1.5 | - | - | 77% | 43% | 18% | 6% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Nick Watson | HFFR | 1.5 | - | - | 78% | 44% | 19% | 6% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | FF | 1.0 | - | - | 63% | 26% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | HFFL | 1.0 | - | - | 61% | 25% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Dylan Moore | FPL | 0.8 | - | - | 56% | 20% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Sam Butler | INT | 0.8 | - | - | 54% | 18% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jack Dalton | C | 0.6 | - | - | 46% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Josh Weddle | INT | 0.5 | - | - | 41% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 0.4 | - | - | 32% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Conor Nash | INT | 0.3 | - | - | 25% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | INT | 0.3 | - | - | 26% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WL | 0.3 | - | - | 25% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jarman Impey | BPR | 0.2 | - | - | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Josh Ward | R | 0.2 | - | - | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Ned Reeves | RK | 0.2 | - | - | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | HBFR | 0.1 | - | - | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Flynn Perez | WR | 0.1 | - | - | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jack Scrimshaw | BPL | 0.1 | - | - | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| James Sicily | CHB | 0.1 | - | - | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Josh Battle | HBFL | 0.1 | - | - | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 0.0 | - | - | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Cameron | FPR | 2.1 | - | - | 88% | 62% | 34% | 16% | 6% | 1.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 1.7 | - | - | 82% | 52% | 25% | 10% | 3% | 4.0 |
| Oliver Henry | FPL | 1.3 | - | - | 74% | 39% | 15% | 5% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | CHF | 1.2 | - | - | 71% | 35% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Jack Martin | HFFL | 1.1 | - | - | 66% | 29% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WR | 1.1 | - | - | 66% | 30% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Brad Close | INT | 0.9 | - | - | 59% | 22% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jack Bowes | INT | 0.7 | - | - | 51% | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Gryan Miers | INT | 0.5 | - | - | 37% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Oliver Wiltshire | HFFR | 0.5 | - | - | 41% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Bailey Smith | C | 0.4 | - | - | 32% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Mark Blicavs | WL | 0.4 | - | - | 30% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Max Holmes | R | 0.4 | - | - | 33% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 0.3 | - | - | 22% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | INT | 0.3 | - | - | 26% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | HBFR | 0.2 | - | - | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Tom Atkins | RR | 0.2 | - | - | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | HBFL | 0.1 | - | - | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Sam De Koning | BPL | 0.1 | - | - | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | INT | 0.1 | - | - | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | BPR | 0.0 | - | - | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jack Henry | FB | 0.0 | - | - | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Tom Stewart | CHB | 0.0 | - | - | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |