AFL · ROUND 4 · MCG
Hawthorn v Geelong Cats
Mon 6 Apr 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
GEE by 4
GEE to win, 57% chance
HAW 43%57% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 1
MISS Actual margin 1 · 4.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Sicily | CHB | 7.3 | - | - | 93% | 85% | 73% | 59% | 44% | 5.0 |
| Josh Battle | HBFL | 6.4 | - | - | 88% | 76% | 61% | 45% | 31% | 2.0 |
| Jarman Impey | BPR | 5.9 | - | - | 84% | 70% | 54% | 38% | 24% | 5.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | HBFR | 5.4 | - | - | 78% | 62% | 45% | 29% | 17% | 3.0 |
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 5.3 | - | - | 77% | 60% | 43% | 28% | 16% | 6.0 |
| Josh Weddle | INT | 5.3 | - | - | 77% | 61% | 43% | 28% | 16% | 1.0 |
| Jack Scrimshaw | BPL | 5.1 | - | - | 75% | 58% | 41% | 26% | 15% | 3.0 |
| Dylan Moore | FPL | 4.7 | - | - | 68% | 50% | 33% | 19% | 10% | 6.0 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 4.6 | - | - | 67% | 48% | 31% | 18% | 9% | 6.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | HFFL | 4.4 | - | - | 64% | 45% | 28% | 16% | 8% | 7.0 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 4.4 | - | - | 64% | 45% | 28% | 16% | 8% | 4.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | FF | 4.3 | - | - | 63% | 43% | 27% | 15% | 7% | 8.0 |
| Flynn Perez | WR | 4.3 | - | - | 62% | 43% | 26% | 14% | 7% | 1.0 |
| Josh Ward | R | 4.1 | - | - | 59% | 40% | 23% | 12% | 6% | 3.0 |
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 3.8 | - | - | 53% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 1.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WL | 3.8 | - | - | 52% | 32% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 7.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | INT | 3.5 | - | - | 47% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 8.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | INT | 3.1 | - | - | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 5.0 |
| Jack Dalton | C | 2.9 | - | - | 33% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Sam Butler | INT | 2.9 | - | - | 33% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Nick Watson | HFFR | 2.8 | - | - | 32% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Conor Nash | INT | 2.3 | - | - | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Ned Reeves | RK | 1.7 | - | - | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Stewart | CHB | 6.1 | - | - | 86% | 72% | 57% | 41% | 27% | 9.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | INT | 5.7 | - | - | 82% | 67% | 51% | 35% | 22% | 5.0 |
| Jeremy Cameron | FPR | 5.6 | - | - | 81% | 66% | 49% | 34% | 21% | 7.0 |
| Jack Henry | FB | 5.5 | - | - | 79% | 64% | 46% | 31% | 19% | 4.0 |
| Max Holmes | R | 5.0 | - | - | 73% | 55% | 38% | 23% | 13% | 6.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | BPR | 4.7 | - | - | 69% | 50% | 33% | 19% | 10% | 6.0 |
| Gryan Miers | INT | 4.5 | - | - | 66% | 46% | 30% | 17% | 8% | 6.0 |
| Sam De Koning | BPL | 4.4 | - | - | 63% | 44% | 27% | 15% | 8% | 4.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | HBFL | 4.3 | - | - | 63% | 44% | 27% | 15% | 7% | 8.0 |
| Bailey Smith | C | 4.0 | - | - | 57% | 37% | 22% | 11% | 5% | 5.0 |
| Jack Martin | HFFL | 4.0 | - | - | 57% | 38% | 22% | 12% | 5% | 5.0 |
| Jack Bowes | INT | 3.8 | - | - | 52% | 33% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 3.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | CHF | 3.4 | - | - | 44% | 25% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WR | 3.3 | - | - | 43% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 4.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 3.3 | - | - | 42% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 4.0 |
| Mark Blicavs | WL | 3.0 | - | - | 35% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Oliver Henry | FPL | 2.8 | - | - | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | INT | 2.8 | - | - | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 6.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | HBFR | 2.7 | - | - | 29% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Brad Close | INT | 2.5 | - | - | 25% | 12% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Oliver Wiltshire | HFFR | 2.3 | - | - | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Tom Atkins | RR | 2.2 | - | - | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 1.9 | - | - | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |