AFL · ROUND 4 · MCG
Hawthorn v Geelong Cats
Mon 6 Apr 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
GEE by 4
GEE to win, 57% chance
HAW 43%57% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 1
MISS Actual margin 1 · 4.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 24.0 / 25.0 | 0.4 / 0.0 | 3.8 / 1.0 | 4.2 / 4.0 | 86 / 76 |
| Josh Ward | R | 21.6 / 29.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 4.1 / 3.0 | 3.7 / 6.0 | 80 / 105 |
| James Sicily | CHB | 20.7 / 20.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 7.3 / 5.0 | 1.7 / 0.0 | 84 / 66 |
| Dylan Moore | FPL | 20.6 / 18.0 | 0.8 / 0.0 | 4.7 / 6.0 | 3.2 / 3.0 | 85 / 78 |
| Jarman Impey | BPR | 20.5 / 26.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 5.9 / 5.0 | 2.3 / 1.0 | 79 / 87 |
| Conor Nash | INT | 19.1 / 17.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 2.3 / 2.0 | 5.2 / 8.0 | 75 / 74 |
| Jack Ginnivan | HFFL | 18.2 / 19.0 | 1.0 / 2.0 | 4.4 / 7.0 | 2.2 / 1.0 | 75 / 90 |
| Josh Battle | HBFL | 18.0 / 15.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 6.4 / 2.0 | 1.7 / 2.0 | 70 / 54 |
| Connor Macdonald | FF | 17.8 / 26.0 | 1.0 / 0.0 | 4.3 / 8.0 | 2.4 / 3.0 | 73 / 106 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WL | 17.6 / 23.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 3.8 / 7.0 | 2.1 / 6.0 | 65 / 97 |
| Flynn Perez | WR | 16.6 / 13.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 4.3 / 1.0 | 2.1 / 6.0 | 64 / 58 |
| Blake Hardwick | HBFR | 16.4 / 15.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 5.4 / 3.0 | 2.1 / 4.0 | 66 / 65 |
| Jack Scrimshaw | BPL | 16.3 / 13.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 5.1 / 3.0 | 1.6 / 0.0 | 70 / 36 |
| Josh Weddle | INT | 16.2 / 13.0 | 0.5 / 1.0 | 5.3 / 1.0 | 2.5 / 0.0 | 66 / 37 |
| Jack Dalton | C | 14.3 / 10.0 | 0.6 / 0.0 | 2.9 / 1.0 | 1.9 / 1.0 | 56 / 30 |
| Lloyd Meek | INT | 12.9 / 9.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 3.1 / 5.0 | 3.3 / 4.0 | 82 / 63 |
| Nick Watson | HFFR | 12.5 / 13.0 | 1.5 / 3.0 | 2.8 / 2.0 | 2.5 / 3.0 | 58 / 63 |
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 11.1 / 14.0 | 2.5 / 3.0 | 5.3 / 6.0 | 1.6 / 1.0 | 66 / 78 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 10.8 / 12.0 | 1.6 / 2.0 | 4.6 / 6.0 | 2.7 / 0.0 | 63 / 65 |
| Sam Butler | INT | 10.2 / 19.0 | 0.8 / 0.0 | 2.9 / 3.0 | 2.2 / 4.0 | 48 / 77 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 9.8 / 17.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 4.4 / 4.0 | 1.4 / 3.0 | 42 / 72 |
| Mitch Lewis | INT | 9.2 / 11.0 | 1.5 / 2.0 | 3.5 / 8.0 | 1.7 / 2.0 | 54 / 68 |
| Ned Reeves | RK | 8.5 / 10.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 1.7 / 1.0 | 2.5 / 1.0 | 63 / 58 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | C | 30.7 / 33.0 | 0.4 / 0.0 | 4.0 / 5.0 | 4.4 / 5.0 | 108 / 124 |
| Max Holmes | R | 30.3 / 27.0 | 0.4 / 0.0 | 5.0 / 6.0 | 4.5 / 4.0 | 110 / 108 |
| Gryan Miers | INT | 22.4 / 22.0 | 0.5 / 0.0 | 4.5 / 6.0 | 3.4 / 2.0 | 84 / 85 |
| Tom Atkins | RR | 21.5 / 12.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 2.2 / 1.0 | 6.8 / 3.0 | 85 / 31 |
| Tom Stewart | CHB | 21.3 / 22.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 6.1 / 9.0 | 1.6 / 0.0 | 83 / 93 |
| Tanner Bruhn | INT | 17.8 / 26.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 2.8 / 6.0 | 4.2 / 1.0 | 68 / 89 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WR | 17.5 / 12.0 | 1.1 / 1.0 | 3.3 / 4.0 | 2.5 / 1.0 | 72 / 50 |
| Jack Bowes | INT | 17.2 / 13.0 | 0.7 / 2.0 | 3.8 / 3.0 | 2.9 / 4.0 | 70 / 73 |
| Zach Guthrie | INT | 16.8 / 19.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 5.7 / 5.0 | 2.1 / 5.0 | 67 / 83 |
| Lawson Humphries | HBFL | 16.7 / 20.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 4.3 / 8.0 | 2.2 / 4.0 | 66 / 98 |
| Shaun Mannagh | CHF | 15.8 / 6.0 | 1.2 / 0.0 | 3.4 / 3.0 | 3.6 / 1.0 | 72 / 31 |
| Mark Blicavs | WL | 14.6 / 14.0 | 0.4 / 1.0 | 3.0 / 3.0 | 3.1 / 4.0 | 69 / 74 |
| Jeremy Cameron | FPR | 14.3 / 16.0 | 2.1 / 1.0 | 5.6 / 7.0 | 1.7 / 3.0 | 75 / 84 |
| Sam De Koning | BPL | 12.2 / 10.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 4.4 / 4.0 | 1.6 / 2.0 | 48 / 44 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | BPR | 12.1 / 13.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 4.7 / 6.0 | 2.0 / 2.0 | 51 / 62 |
| Brad Close | INT | 11.9 / 9.0 | 0.9 / 0.0 | 2.5 / 2.0 | 2.2 / 2.0 | 55 / 34 |
| Jack Henry | FB | 11.9 / 7.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 5.5 / 4.0 | 1.5 / 1.0 | 50 / 34 |
| Jack Martin | HFFL | 11.6 / 11.0 | 1.1 / 1.0 | 4.0 / 5.0 | 2.1 / 3.0 | 58 / 61 |
| Oisin Mullin | HBFR | 11.4 / 16.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 2.7 / 3.0 | 2.4 / 2.0 | 46 / 57 |
| Oliver Wiltshire | HFFR | 10.1 / 11.0 | 0.5 / 1.0 | 2.3 / 3.0 | 2.0 / 0.0 | 46 / 42 |
| Oliver Henry | FPL | 10.0 / 7.0 | 1.3 / 3.0 | 2.8 / 3.0 | 2.2 / 0.0 | 52 / 48 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 9.8 / 10.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 1.9 / 1.0 | 2.1 / 2.0 | 52 / 57 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 8.8 / 6.0 | 1.7 / 4.0 | 3.3 / 4.0 | 2.0 / 4.0 | 52 / 63 |