AFL · ROUND 4 · MCG
Hawthorn v Geelong Cats
Mon 6 Apr 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
GEE by 4
GEE to win, 57% chance
HAW 43%57% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 1
MISS Actual margin 1 · 4.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conor Nash | INT | 5.2 | - | - | 89% | 77% | 60% | 42% | 27% | 8.0 |
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 4.2 | - | - | 79% | 60% | 41% | 25% | 13% | 4.0 |
| Josh Ward | R | 3.7 | - | - | 71% | 50% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 6.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | INT | 3.3 | - | - | 64% | 42% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 4.0 |
| Dylan Moore | FPL | 3.2 | - | - | 62% | 40% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 3.0 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 2.7 | - | - | 50% | 28% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0.0 |
| Josh Weddle | INT | 2.5 | - | - | 44% | 23% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Ned Reeves | RK | 2.5 | - | - | 46% | 25% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Nick Watson | HFFR | 2.5 | - | - | 45% | 24% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | FF | 2.4 | - | - | 43% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Jarman Impey | BPR | 2.3 | - | - | 40% | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | HFFL | 2.2 | - | - | 38% | 18% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Sam Butler | INT | 2.2 | - | - | 37% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | HBFR | 2.1 | - | - | 35% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Flynn Perez | WR | 2.1 | - | - | 35% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 6.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WL | 2.1 | - | - | 35% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 6.0 |
| Jack Dalton | C | 1.9 | - | - | 30% | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| James Sicily | CHB | 1.7 | - | - | 25% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Josh Battle | HBFL | 1.7 | - | - | 25% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | INT | 1.7 | - | - | 24% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 1.6 | - | - | 23% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Jack Scrimshaw | BPL | 1.6 | - | - | 22% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 1.4 | - | - | 17% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 3.0 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Atkins | RR | 6.8 | - | - | 96% | 91% | 81% | 67% | 52% | 3.0 |
| Max Holmes | R | 4.5 | - | - | 82% | 66% | 46% | 29% | 17% | 4.0 |
| Bailey Smith | C | 4.4 | - | - | 82% | 65% | 46% | 29% | 16% | 5.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | INT | 4.2 | - | - | 79% | 61% | 42% | 25% | 14% | 1.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | CHF | 3.6 | - | - | 70% | 49% | 30% | 16% | 8% | 1.0 |
| Gryan Miers | INT | 3.4 | - | - | 66% | 44% | 25% | 13% | 6% | 2.0 |
| Mark Blicavs | WL | 3.1 | - | - | 59% | 37% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 4.0 |
| Jack Bowes | INT | 2.9 | - | - | 56% | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 4.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WR | 2.5 | - | - | 47% | 25% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | HBFR | 2.4 | - | - | 42% | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Brad Close | INT | 2.2 | - | - | 38% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | HBFL | 2.2 | - | - | 37% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Oliver Henry | FPL | 2.2 | - | - | 37% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Jack Martin | HFFL | 2.1 | - | - | 36% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 2.1 | - | - | 34% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | INT | 2.1 | - | - | 36% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 5.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | BPR | 2.0 | - | - | 32% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Oliver Wiltshire | HFFR | 2.0 | - | - | 33% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 2.0 | - | - | 33% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Jeremy Cameron | FPR | 1.7 | - | - | 24% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Sam De Koning | BPL | 1.6 | - | - | 22% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Tom Stewart | CHB | 1.6 | - | - | 23% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jack Henry | FB | 1.5 | - | - | 20% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |