AFL · ROUND 4 · MCG
Melbourne v Gold Coast SUNS
Sun 5 Apr 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
GCS by 15
GCS to win, 78% chance
MEL 22%78% GCS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 20
MISS Actual margin 20 · 35.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Gawn | RK | 113 | - | - | 98% | 94% | 86% | 73% | 56% | 121 |
| Jack Steele | C | 104 | - | - | 95% | 87% | 75% | 58% | 39% | 112 |
| Christian Salem | HBFR | 95 | - | - | 88% | 76% | 60% | 41% | 24% | 75 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | FPR | 82 | - | - | 71% | 53% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 98 |
| Caleb Windsor | WR | 67 | - | - | 45% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 71 |
| Ed Langdon | HFFR | 66 | - | - | 43% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 60 |
| Kade Chandler | INT | 66 | - | - | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 67 |
| Harvey Langford | INT | 65 | - | - | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 49 |
| Xavier Lindsay | HBFL | 65 | - | - | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 54 |
| Tom Sparrow | RR | 62 | - | - | 35% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 102 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | CHF | 60 | - | - | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 70 |
| Brody Mihocek | FF | 59 | - | - | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 47 |
| Daniel Turner | INT | 57 | - | - | 26% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 56 |
| Jai Culley | R | 57 | - | - | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 43 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 57 | - | - | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 74 |
| Jake Melksham | INT | 56 | - | - | 25% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 62 |
| Latrelle Pickett | HFFL | 56 | - | - | 25% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 45 |
| Harrison Petty | BPL | 55 | - | - | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 42 |
| Harry Sharp | WL | 52 | - | - | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 82 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | INT | 52 | - | - | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 61 |
| Tom McDonald | CHB | 52 | - | - | 20% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 41 |
| Blake Howes | BPR | 51 | - | - | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 41 |
| Bailey Laurie | FPL | 50 | - | - | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 39 |
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson | RR | 102 | - | - | 93% | 85% | 71% | 54% | 35% | 77 |
| Matt Rowell | R | 94 | - | - | 87% | 74% | 57% | 38% | 22% | 43 |
| John Noble | HBFL | 92 | - | - | 85% | 71% | 54% | 35% | 20% | 94 |
| Touk Miller | CHF | 92 | - | - | 86% | 72% | 55% | 36% | 20% | 69 |
| Jarrod Witts | RK | 90 | - | - | 83% | 69% | 50% | 32% | 18% | 40 |
| Bodhi Uwland | CHB | 78 | - | - | 65% | 47% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 85 |
| Wil Powell | C | 78 | - | - | 65% | 47% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 89 |
| Joel Jeffrey | INT | 76 | - | - | 61% | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 68 |
| Sam Clohesy | INT | 70 | - | - | 49% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 75 |
| Daniel Rioli | HBFR | 69 | - | - | 48% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 81 |
| Mac Andrew | BPR | 65 | - | - | 40% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 58 |
| Lachie Weller | WL | 62 | - | - | 36% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 63 |
| Ben King | FF | 58 | - | - | 29% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 60 |
| Will Graham | HFFR | 57 | - | - | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 78 |
| Ethan Read | FPL | 56 | - | - | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 52 |
| Ben Long | HFFL | 54 | - | - | 22% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 26 |
| Lachlan Gulbin | INT | 54 | - | - | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 85 |
| Leonardo Lombard | FPR | 54 | - | - | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 47 |
| Sam Collins | FB | 54 | - | - | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 49 |
| Zeke Uwland | WR | 54 | - | - | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 65 |
| Jake Rogers | INT | 52 | - | - | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 39 |
| Charlie Ballard | BPL | 50 | - | - | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 37 |
| Jed Walter | INT | 41 | - | - | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 71 |