AFL · ROUND 4 · MCG
Melbourne v Gold Coast SUNS
Sun 5 Apr 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
GCS by 15
GCS to win, 78% chance
MEL 22%78% GCS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 20
MISS Actual margin 20 · 35.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brody Mihocek | FF | 1.7 | - | - | 82% | 51% | 25% | 10% | 3% | 2.0 |
| Jake Melksham | INT | 1.6 | - | - | 80% | 49% | 23% | 8% | 3% | 4.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | FPR | 1.6 | - | - | 79% | 46% | 20% | 7% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | CHF | 1.5 | - | - | 77% | 44% | 19% | 6% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Kade Chandler | INT | 0.8 | - | - | 53% | 17% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Harry Sharp | WL | 0.7 | - | - | 50% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Bailey Laurie | FPL | 0.6 | - | - | 47% | 13% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Harrison Petty | BPL | 0.6 | - | - | 43% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | INT | 0.6 | - | - | 43% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Latrelle Pickett | HFFL | 0.6 | - | - | 46% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Ed Langdon | HFFR | 0.5 | - | - | 37% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jai Culley | R | 0.5 | - | - | 41% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Harvey Langford | INT | 0.4 | - | - | 33% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Jack Steele | C | 0.4 | - | - | 33% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 0.4 | - | - | 30% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | WR | 0.3 | - | - | 29% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | RR | 0.3 | - | - | 28% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Xavier Lindsay | HBFL | 0.3 | - | - | 25% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Blake Howes | BPR | 0.1 | - | - | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Christian Salem | HBFR | 0.1 | - | - | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Daniel Turner | INT | 0.1 | - | - | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 0.0 | - | - | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Tom McDonald | CHB | 0.0 | - | - | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben King | FF | 3.3 | - | - | 96% | 84% | 64% | 42% | 24% | 3.0 |
| Ben Long | HFFL | 1.7 | - | - | 82% | 51% | 25% | 10% | 3% | 0.0 |
| Ethan Read | FPL | 1.2 | - | - | 69% | 33% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | FPR | 1.1 | - | - | 68% | 31% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Jed Walter | INT | 1.0 | - | - | 62% | 26% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Jake Rogers | INT | 0.9 | - | - | 59% | 22% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Will Graham | HFFR | 0.9 | - | - | 59% | 23% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Noah Anderson | RR | 0.8 | - | - | 55% | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Lachlan Gulbin | INT | 0.6 | - | - | 43% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Touk Miller | CHF | 0.6 | - | - | 47% | 13% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Zeke Uwland | WR | 0.6 | - | - | 43% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Sam Clohesy | INT | 0.5 | - | - | 38% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jarrod Witts | RK | 0.4 | - | - | 30% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Matt Rowell | R | 0.4 | - | - | 33% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Lachie Weller | WL | 0.3 | - | - | 25% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Wil Powell | C | 0.3 | - | - | 22% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Daniel Rioli | HBFR | 0.2 | - | - | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Joel Jeffrey | INT | 0.2 | - | - | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| John Noble | HBFL | 0.2 | - | - | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Bodhi Uwland | CHB | 0.1 | - | - | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Charlie Ballard | BPL | 0.1 | - | - | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Mac Andrew | BPR | 0.1 | - | - | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Sam Collins | FB | 0.0 | - | - | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |