AFL · ROUND 4 · MCG
Melbourne v Gold Coast SUNS
Sun 5 Apr 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
GCS by 15
GCS to win, 78% chance
MEL 22%78% GCS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 20
MISS Actual margin 20 · 35.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Salem | HBFR | 6.7 | - | - | 90% | 80% | 66% | 51% | 36% | 4.0 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 6.3 | - | - | 87% | 75% | 60% | 44% | 30% | 9.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 6.0 | - | - | 85% | 72% | 56% | 40% | 26% | 5.0 |
| Daniel Turner | INT | 5.9 | - | - | 84% | 70% | 53% | 37% | 24% | 6.0 |
| Tom McDonald | CHB | 5.5 | - | - | 80% | 65% | 48% | 32% | 20% | 5.0 |
| Jack Steele | C | 4.7 | - | - | 70% | 51% | 34% | 20% | 11% | 5.0 |
| Blake Howes | BPR | 4.5 | - | - | 66% | 47% | 30% | 17% | 9% | 3.0 |
| Ed Langdon | HFFR | 4.5 | - | - | 65% | 46% | 29% | 17% | 8% | 7.0 |
| Harrison Petty | BPL | 4.4 | - | - | 63% | 44% | 27% | 15% | 8% | 4.0 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | CHF | 4.4 | - | - | 64% | 45% | 28% | 16% | 8% | 6.0 |
| Brody Mihocek | FF | 4.3 | - | - | 62% | 43% | 26% | 14% | 7% | 2.0 |
| Jake Melksham | INT | 3.8 | - | - | 52% | 33% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 5.0 |
| Harvey Langford | INT | 3.5 | - | - | 46% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 4.0 |
| Kade Chandler | INT | 3.5 | - | - | 46% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Xavier Lindsay | HBFL | 3.5 | - | - | 47% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | FPR | 3.3 | - | - | 41% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Harry Sharp | WL | 3.1 | - | - | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 6.0 |
| Jai Culley | R | 3.1 | - | - | 37% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | RR | 3.1 | - | - | 37% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | WR | 2.9 | - | - | 34% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Latrelle Pickett | HFFL | 2.9 | - | - | 33% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | INT | 2.7 | - | - | 30% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Bailey Laurie | FPL | 2.2 | - | - | 18% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bodhi Uwland | CHB | 6.3 | - | - | 88% | 76% | 61% | 45% | 30% | 5.0 |
| Mac Andrew | BPR | 6.1 | - | - | 86% | 73% | 57% | 41% | 27% | 4.0 |
| John Noble | HBFL | 5.6 | - | - | 80% | 65% | 48% | 32% | 20% | 5.0 |
| Sam Collins | FB | 5.5 | - | - | 80% | 65% | 48% | 32% | 19% | 5.0 |
| Joel Jeffrey | INT | 5.2 | - | - | 77% | 60% | 43% | 27% | 16% | 6.0 |
| Charlie Ballard | BPL | 5.0 | - | - | 73% | 55% | 38% | 23% | 13% | 2.0 |
| Wil Powell | C | 4.9 | - | - | 72% | 55% | 37% | 23% | 12% | 5.0 |
| Sam Clohesy | INT | 4.6 | - | - | 67% | 48% | 31% | 18% | 9% | 5.0 |
| Noah Anderson | RR | 4.4 | - | - | 63% | 44% | 27% | 15% | 8% | 5.0 |
| Ben King | FF | 4.3 | - | - | 62% | 43% | 26% | 14% | 7% | 6.0 |
| Daniel Rioli | HBFR | 4.0 | - | - | 56% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 6.0 |
| Ben Long | HFFL | 3.9 | - | - | 55% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 5% | 2.0 |
| Touk Miller | CHF | 3.9 | - | - | 55% | 36% | 20% | 10% | 5% | 2.0 |
| Ethan Read | FPL | 3.8 | - | - | 52% | 33% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2.0 |
| Lachie Weller | WL | 3.4 | - | - | 43% | 25% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | FPR | 3.3 | - | - | 41% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Will Graham | HFFR | 3.0 | - | - | 36% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 5.0 |
| Lachlan Gulbin | INT | 2.8 | - | - | 32% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 8.0 |
| Zeke Uwland | WR | 2.8 | - | - | 32% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Jed Walter | INT | 2.7 | - | - | 28% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 7.0 |
| Jake Rogers | INT | 2.6 | - | - | 26% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jarrod Witts | RK | 2.3 | - | - | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Matt Rowell | R | 2.0 | - | - | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |