AFL · ROUND 4 · MARVEL STADIUM
North Melbourne v Carlton
Fri 3 Apr 2026, 3:15pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
CAR by 1
CAR to win, 52% chance
NM 48%52% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 10
MISS Actual margin 10 · 11.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | R | 32.9 / 24.0 | 0.6 / 1.0 | 6.1 / 5.0 | 4.4 / 2.0 | 119 / 81 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | RR | 28.9 / 22.0 | 0.6 / 0.0 | 4.6 / 2.0 | 4.3 / 6.0 | 105 / 80 |
| Luke Parker | INT | 26.8 / 20.0 | 0.6 / 0.0 | 4.9 / 4.0 | 3.4 / 3.0 | 98 / 77 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 26.5 / 27.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 5.0 / 10.0 | 2.5 / 4.0 | 95 / 115 |
| Colby McKercher | HFFR | 26.1 / 24.0 | 0.5 / 0.0 | 4.1 / 3.0 | 2.0 / 2.0 | 91 / 84 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 24.5 / 17.0 | 0.5 / 1.0 | 5.2 / 2.0 | 2.7 / 1.0 | 92 / 61 |
| Tom Powell | C | 24.0 / 18.0 | 0.6 / 0.0 | 4.1 / 5.0 | 3.6 / 4.0 | 88 / 74 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 20.8 / 26.0 | 0.5 / 0.0 | 5.5 / 8.0 | 2.2 / 2.0 | 81 / 100 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | HBFL | 19.0 / 21.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 5.2 / 4.0 | 2.4 / 3.0 | 73 / 76 |
| George Wardlaw | INT | 18.6 / 16.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 2.5 / 2.0 | 4.6 / 11.0 | 77 / 87 |
| Luke McDonald | BPL | 16.7 / 18.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 5.9 / 7.0 | 1.9 / 3.0 | 70 / 78 |
| Tom Blamires | HBFR | 16.6 / 15.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 3.7 / 4.0 | 1.9 / 0.0 | 62 / 55 |
| Charlie Comben | BPR | 13.8 / 9.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 6.8 / 3.0 | 1.7 / 3.0 | 63 / 42 |
| Toby Pink | FB | 12.4 / 7.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 5.6 / 2.0 | 1.6 / 2.0 | 52 / 25 |
| Aidan Corr | INT | 12.0 / 8.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 5.0 / 5.0 | 1.8 / 3.0 | 53 / 45 |
| Paul Curtis | HFFL | 11.9 / 10.0 | 2.1 / 2.0 | 4.4 / 3.0 | 3.3 / 2.0 | 68 / 54 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 11.5 / 9.0 | 1.6 / 1.0 | 4.3 / 4.0 | 1.9 / 1.0 | 64 / 45 |
| Zac Banch | INT | 11.5 / 10.0 | 0.4 / 0.0 | 2.7 / 2.0 | 2.1 / 3.0 | 48 / 47 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 10.5 / 11.0 | 3.2 / 2.0 | 5.7 / 3.0 | 1.7 / 0.0 | 64 / 49 |
| Zane Duursma | INT | 9.9 / 9.0 | 0.7 / 3.0 | 3.3 / 4.0 | 1.9 / 1.0 | 48 / 61 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 9.8 / 11.0 | 1.5 / 3.0 | 4.1 / 6.0 | 1.9 / 4.0 | 52 / 93 |
| Jack Darling | FPR | 9.5 / 10.0 | 1.1 / 1.0 | 3.7 / 1.0 | 2.1 / 6.0 | 53 / 63 |
| Callum Coleman-Jones | RK | 9.0 / 10.0 | 0.4 / 0.0 | 2.3 / 1.0 | 1.9 / 0.0 | 55 / 28 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Hewett | RR | 29.3 / 22.0 | 0.4 / 0.0 | 3.6 / 6.0 | 4.9 / 7.0 | 100 / 93 |
| Sam Walsh | R | 29.2 / 19.0 | 0.4 / 1.0 | 4.0 / 3.0 | 4.1 / 5.0 | 97 / 78 |
| Nic Newman | BPR | 25.3 / 19.0 | 0.1 / 1.0 | 6.9 / 9.0 | 3.2 / 1.0 | 100 / 92 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 24.4 / 21.0 | 0.7 / 0.0 | 2.9 / 4.0 | 5.0 / 4.0 | 90 / 79 |
| Adam Cerra | INT | 23.7 / 19.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 4.2 / 3.0 | 4.5 / 5.0 | 89 / 79 |
| Jagga Smith | FPR | 21.1 / 17.0 | 0.4 / 1.0 | 3.0 / 3.0 | 2.3 / 1.0 | 71 / 57 |
| Oliver Florent | HBFL | 20.8 / 20.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 5.5 / 9.0 | 2.0 / 0.0 | 76 / 79 |
| Oliver Hollands | INT | 20.7 / 21.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 4.8 / 10.0 | 2.7 / 5.0 | 75 / 106 |
| Elijah Hollands | WL | 18.4 / 18.0 | 0.7 / 1.0 | 4.6 / 8.0 | 2.3 / 1.0 | 75 / 77 |
| Lachlan Cowan | BPL | 16.3 / 13.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 5.6 / 4.0 | 2.2 / 2.0 | 68 / 49 |
| Matthew Carroll | WR | 14.9 / 15.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 4.4 / 6.0 | 1.9 / 0.0 | 59 / 56 |
| Mitch McGovern | INT | 14.8 / 8.0 | 0.5 / 2.0 | 5.0 / 2.0 | 1.6 / 6.0 | 61 / 65 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFR | 13.8 / 21.0 | 1.4 / 0.0 | 3.8 / 8.0 | 2.0 / 2.0 | 60 / 86 |
| Harry McKay | CHF | 13.8 / 12.0 | 2.1 / 2.0 | 6.5 / 6.0 | 1.9 / 1.0 | 75 / 71 |
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 13.7 / 10.0 | -0.0 / 0.0 | 6.6 / 7.0 | 1.5 / 0.0 | 56 / 45 |
| Wade Derksen | CHB | 13.0 / 11.0 | 0.6 / 0.0 | 2.8 / 4.0 | 2.0 / 1.0 | 52 / 46 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 12.8 / 11.0 | 0.4 / 2.0 | 2.4 / 1.0 | 2.7 / 1.0 | 71 / 85 |
| Will Hayward | HFFL | 12.6 / 6.0 | 1.3 / 0.0 | 4.1 / 2.0 | 2.3 / 2.0 | 57 / 24 |
| Jordan Boyd | HBFR | 12.1 / 16.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 3.6 / 7.0 | 1.9 / 5.0 | 49 / 87 |
| Francis Evans | INT | 11.9 / 17.0 | 1.3 / 0.0 | 3.6 / 2.0 | 2.7 / 3.0 | 60 / 59 |
| Brodie Kemp | FF | 11.3 / 11.0 | 1.1 / 3.0 | 4.8 / 4.0 | 2.0 / 2.0 | 54 / 72 |
| Lewis Young | INT | 11.3 / 7.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 4.7 / 3.0 | 1.6 / 1.0 | 46 / 30 |
| Talor Byrne | FPL | 9.4 / 5.0 | 0.7 / 0.0 | 2.9 / 3.0 | 1.9 / 4.0 | 44 / 34 |