AFL · ROUND 4 · MARVEL STADIUM
North Melbourne v Carlton
Fri 3 Apr 2026, 3:15pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
CAR by 1
CAR to win, 52% chance
NM 48%52% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 10
MISS Actual margin 10 · 11.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | R | 32.9 | - | - | 100% | 99% | 94% | 72% | 38% | 24.0 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | RR | 28.9 | - | - | 100% | 97% | 79% | 44% | 15% | 22.0 |
| Luke Parker | INT | 26.8 | - | - | 100% | 93% | 66% | 30% | 7% | 20.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 26.5 | - | - | 99% | 92% | 64% | 27% | 6% | 27.0 |
| Colby McKercher | HFFR | 26.1 | - | - | 99% | 91% | 61% | 25% | 6% | 24.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 24.5 | - | - | 98% | 84% | 48% | 15% | 3% | 17.0 |
| Tom Powell | C | 24.0 | - | - | 98% | 82% | 44% | 13% | 2% | 18.0 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 20.8 | - | - | 92% | 60% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 26.0 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | HBFL | 19.0 | - | - | 85% | 44% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 21.0 |
| George Wardlaw | INT | 18.6 | - | - | 83% | 40% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Luke McDonald | BPL | 16.7 | - | - | 69% | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Tom Blamires | HBFR | 16.6 | - | - | 69% | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Charlie Comben | BPR | 13.8 | - | - | 41% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Toby Pink | FB | 12.4 | - | - | 27% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |
| Aidan Corr | INT | 12.0 | - | - | 23% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Paul Curtis | HFFL | 11.9 | - | - | 22% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 11.5 | - | - | 18% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Zac Banch | INT | 11.5 | - | - | 18% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 10.5 | - | - | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Zane Duursma | INT | 9.9 | - | - | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 9.8 | - | - | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Jack Darling | FPR | 9.5 | - | - | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Callum Coleman-Jones | RK | 9.0 | - | - | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Hewett | RR | 29.3 | - | - | 100% | 97% | 81% | 47% | 17% | 22.0 |
| Sam Walsh | R | 29.2 | - | - | 100% | 97% | 80% | 46% | 16% | 19.0 |
| Nic Newman | BPR | 25.3 | - | - | 99% | 88% | 55% | 20% | 4% | 19.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 24.4 | - | - | 98% | 84% | 48% | 15% | 3% | 21.0 |
| Adam Cerra | INT | 23.7 | - | - | 98% | 81% | 42% | 12% | 2% | 19.0 |
| Jagga Smith | FPR | 21.1 | - | - | 93% | 62% | 22% | 4% | 0% | 17.0 |
| Oliver Florent | HBFL | 20.8 | - | - | 92% | 60% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 20.0 |
| Oliver Hollands | INT | 20.7 | - | - | 92% | 59% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 21.0 |
| Elijah Hollands | WL | 18.4 | - | - | 82% | 39% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | BPL | 16.3 | - | - | 66% | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Matthew Carroll | WR | 14.9 | - | - | 52% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | INT | 14.8 | - | - | 52% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFR | 13.8 | - | - | 41% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 21.0 |
| Harry McKay | CHF | 13.8 | - | - | 41% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 13.7 | - | - | 40% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Wade Derksen | CHB | 13.0 | - | - | 33% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 12.8 | - | - | 30% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Will Hayward | HFFL | 12.6 | - | - | 29% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6.0 |
| Jordan Boyd | HBFR | 12.1 | - | - | 24% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Francis Evans | INT | 11.9 | - | - | 22% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 17.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | FF | 11.3 | - | - | 17% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Lewis Young | INT | 11.3 | - | - | 17% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |
| Talor Byrne | FPL | 9.4 | - | - | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5.0 |