North Melbourne v Carlton

Fri 3 Apr 2026, 3:15pm AEDT (venue time)

FINAL MISS

OUR TIP

CAR by 1

CAR to win, 52% chance

NM 48%52% CAR

BY HOW MUCH

No margin range published for this match.

RESULT

NM by 10

MISS Actual margin 10 · 11.3 points off our margin

MATCH MODEL Tip and margin 29 Mar 2026

Player predictions

Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.

Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range

North Melbourne

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	70+	80+	90+	100+	110+	ACTUAL
Harry Sheezel	R	119	-	-	99%	97%	92%	82%	67%	81
Luke Davies-Uniacke	RR	105	-	-	95%	88%	76%	59%	40%	80
Luke Parker	INT	98	-	-	91%	80%	65%	46%	29%	77
Caleb Daniel	CHB	95	-	-	88%	76%	59%	40%	24%	115
Jy Simpkin	WL	92	-	-	85%	71%	53%	35%	19%	61
Colby McKercher	HFFR	91	-	-	84%	70%	53%	34%	19%	84
Tom Powell	C	88	-	-	80%	64%	46%	28%	15%	74
Dylan Stephens	WR	81	-	-	70%	52%	33%	18%	8%	100
George Wardlaw	INT	77	-	-	64%	45%	28%	14%	6%	87
Finn O'Sullivan	HBFL	73	-	-	55%	36%	21%	10%	4%	76
Luke McDonald	BPL	70	-	-	49%	31%	17%	8%	3%	78
Paul Curtis	HFFL	68	-	-	46%	28%	14%	6%	2%	54
Cameron Zurhaar	FPL	64	-	-	38%	22%	11%	4%	1%	45
Nick Larkey	FF	64	-	-	40%	23%	11%	5%	2%	49
Charlie Comben	BPR	63	-	-	37%	21%	10%	4%	1%	42
Tom Blamires	HBFR	62	-	-	35%	20%	9%	4%	1%	55
Callum Coleman-Jones	RK	55	-	-	24%	12%	5%	2%	0%	28
Aidan Corr	INT	53	-	-	20%	10%	4%	1%	0%	45
Jack Darling	FPR	53	-	-	21%	10%	4%	1%	0%	63
Cooper Trembath	CHF	52	-	-	20%	10%	4%	1%	0%	93
Toby Pink	FB	52	-	-	20%	10%	4%	1%	0%	25
Zac Banch	INT	48	-	-	16%	7%	2%	1%	0%	47
Zane Duursma	INT	48	-	-	16%	7%	2%	1%	0%	61

Carlton

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	70+	80+	90+	100+	110+	ACTUAL
George Hewett	RR	100	-	-	92%	82%	68%	49%	31%	93
Nic Newman	BPR	100	-	-	92%	83%	68%	50%	32%	92
Sam Walsh	R	97	-	-	90%	79%	63%	45%	27%	78
Patrick Cripps	C	90	-	-	82%	68%	49%	31%	17%	79
Adam Cerra	INT	89	-	-	82%	67%	49%	31%	16%	79
Oliver Florent	HBFL	76	-	-	62%	43%	26%	13%	6%	79
Elijah Hollands	WL	75	-	-	59%	40%	24%	12%	5%	77
Harry McKay	CHF	75	-	-	59%	40%	24%	12%	5%	71
Oliver Hollands	INT	75	-	-	60%	42%	25%	12%	5%	106
Jagga Smith	FPR	71	-	-	52%	34%	19%	9%	3%	57
Marc Pittonet	RK	71	-	-	53%	34%	19%	9%	3%	85
Lachlan Cowan	BPL	68	-	-	47%	29%	15%	7%	2%	49
Mitch McGovern	INT	61	-	-	34%	19%	9%	3%	1%	65
Ben Ainsworth	HFFR	60	-	-	32%	17%	8%	3%	1%	86
Francis Evans	INT	60	-	-	32%	17%	8%	3%	1%	59
Matthew Carroll	WR	59	-	-	30%	16%	7%	3%	1%	56
Will Hayward	HFFL	57	-	-	28%	14%	6%	2%	1%	24
Jacob Weitering	FB	56	-	-	25%	13%	5%	2%	0%	45
Brodie Kemp	FF	54	-	-	23%	11%	5%	2%	0%	72
Wade Derksen	CHB	52	-	-	19%	9%	4%	1%	0%	46
Jordan Boyd	HBFR	49	-	-	16%	7%	3%	1%	0%	87
Lewis Young	INT	46	-	-	13%	5%	2%	0%	0%	30
Talor Byrne	FPL	44	-	-	11%	4%	2%	0%	0%	34