North Melbourne v Carlton

Fri 3 Apr 2026, 3:15pm AEDT (venue time)

FINAL MISS

OUR TIP

CAR by 1

CAR to win, 52% chance

NM 48%52% CAR

BY HOW MUCH

No margin range published for this match.

RESULT

NM by 10

MISS Actual margin 10 · 11.3 points off our margin

MATCH MODEL Tip and margin 29 Mar 2026

Player predictions

Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.

Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range

North Melbourne

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	1+	2+	3+	4+	5+	ACTUAL
Nick Larkey	FF	3.2	-	-	96%	82%	61%	39%	21%	2.0
Paul Curtis	HFFL	2.1	-	-	87%	61%	34%	15%	6%	2.0
Cameron Zurhaar	FPL	1.6	-	-	80%	48%	22%	8%	3%	1.0
Cooper Trembath	CHF	1.5	-	-	77%	43%	18%	6%	2%	3.0
Jack Darling	FPR	1.1	-	-	68%	31%	11%	3%	1%	1.0
Zane Duursma	INT	0.7	-	-	48%	14%	3%	0%	0%	3.0
Harry Sheezel	R	0.6	-	-	44%	11%	2%	0%	0%	1.0
Luke Davies-Uniacke	RR	0.6	-	-	44%	12%	2%	0%	0%	0.0
Luke Parker	INT	0.6	-	-	43%	11%	2%	0%	0%	0.0
Tom Powell	C	0.6	-	-	44%	11%	2%	0%	0%	0.0
Colby McKercher	HFFR	0.5	-	-	39%	9%	1%	0%	0%	0.0
Dylan Stephens	WR	0.5	-	-	38%	8%	1%	0%	0%	0.0
Jy Simpkin	WL	0.5	-	-	41%	10%	2%	0%	0%	1.0
Callum Coleman-Jones	RK	0.4	-	-	34%	7%	1%	0%	0%	0.0
Zac Banch	INT	0.4	-	-	33%	6%	1%	0%	0%	0.0
Aidan Corr	INT	0.3	-	-	28%	4%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Tom Blamires	HBFR	0.3	-	-	24%	3%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Caleb Daniel	CHB	0.2	-	-	15%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Finn O'Sullivan	HBFL	0.2	-	-	21%	2%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
George Wardlaw	INT	0.2	-	-	22%	3%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Charlie Comben	BPR	0.1	-	-	13%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Luke McDonald	BPL	0.1	-	-	9%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Toby Pink	FB	0.1	-	-	6%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0

Carlton

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	1+	2+	3+	4+	5+	ACTUAL
Harry McKay	CHF	2.1	-	-	88%	62%	35%	16%	6%	2.0
Ben Ainsworth	HFFR	1.4	-	-	76%	41%	17%	5%	1%	0.0
Francis Evans	INT	1.3	-	-	72%	36%	14%	4%	1%	0.0
Will Hayward	HFFL	1.3	-	-	74%	38%	15%	5%	1%	0.0
Brodie Kemp	FF	1.1	-	-	67%	31%	10%	3%	1%	3.0
Elijah Hollands	WL	0.7	-	-	49%	15%	3%	0%	0%	1.0
Patrick Cripps	C	0.7	-	-	48%	14%	3%	0%	0%	0.0
Talor Byrne	FPL	0.7	-	-	49%	15%	3%	0%	0%	0.0
Wade Derksen	CHB	0.6	-	-	44%	11%	2%	0%	0%	0.0
Mitch McGovern	INT	0.5	-	-	38%	8%	1%	0%	0%	2.0
George Hewett	RR	0.4	-	-	30%	5%	1%	0%	0%	0.0
Jagga Smith	FPR	0.4	-	-	31%	6%	1%	0%	0%	1.0
Marc Pittonet	RK	0.4	-	-	31%	6%	1%	0%	0%	2.0
Sam Walsh	R	0.4	-	-	31%	5%	1%	0%	0%	1.0
Adam Cerra	INT	0.2	-	-	18%	2%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Matthew Carroll	WR	0.2	-	-	19%	2%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Jordan Boyd	HBFR	0.1	-	-	6%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Lachlan Cowan	BPL	0.1	-	-	6%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Nic Newman	BPR	0.1	-	-	7%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1.0
Oliver Florent	HBFL	0.1	-	-	11%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Oliver Hollands	INT	0.1	-	-	13%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Jacob Weitering	FB	-0.0	-	-	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Lewis Young	INT	0.0	-	-	4%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0