AFL · ROUND 4 · MARVEL STADIUM
North Melbourne v Carlton
Fri 3 Apr 2026, 3:15pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
CAR by 1
CAR to win, 52% chance
NM 48%52% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 10
MISS Actual margin 10 · 11.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Comben | BPR | 6.8 | - | - | 91% | 80% | 67% | 52% | 37% | 3.0 |
| Harry Sheezel | R | 6.1 | - | - | 85% | 72% | 56% | 40% | 26% | 5.0 |
| Luke McDonald | BPL | 5.9 | - | - | 84% | 70% | 54% | 38% | 25% | 7.0 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 5.7 | - | - | 82% | 67% | 50% | 34% | 22% | 3.0 |
| Toby Pink | FB | 5.6 | - | - | 80% | 65% | 48% | 32% | 20% | 2.0 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 5.5 | - | - | 80% | 64% | 47% | 32% | 19% | 8.0 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | HBFL | 5.2 | - | - | 76% | 59% | 42% | 26% | 15% | 4.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 5.2 | - | - | 76% | 59% | 42% | 27% | 15% | 2.0 |
| Aidan Corr | INT | 5.0 | - | - | 73% | 55% | 38% | 23% | 13% | 5.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 5.0 | - | - | 74% | 56% | 38% | 24% | 13% | 10.0 |
| Luke Parker | INT | 4.9 | - | - | 72% | 55% | 37% | 23% | 13% | 4.0 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | RR | 4.6 | - | - | 68% | 49% | 32% | 18% | 10% | 2.0 |
| Paul Curtis | HFFL | 4.4 | - | - | 64% | 45% | 28% | 16% | 8% | 3.0 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 4.3 | - | - | 62% | 43% | 26% | 14% | 7% | 4.0 |
| Colby McKercher | HFFR | 4.1 | - | - | 58% | 38% | 22% | 12% | 5% | 3.0 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 4.1 | - | - | 58% | 38% | 22% | 12% | 6% | 6.0 |
| Tom Powell | C | 4.1 | - | - | 59% | 40% | 24% | 12% | 6% | 5.0 |
| Jack Darling | FPR | 3.7 | - | - | 51% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1.0 |
| Tom Blamires | HBFR | 3.7 | - | - | 52% | 32% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 4.0 |
| Zane Duursma | INT | 3.3 | - | - | 41% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 4.0 |
| Zac Banch | INT | 2.7 | - | - | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 2.0 |
| George Wardlaw | INT | 2.5 | - | - | 25% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Callum Coleman-Jones | RK | 2.3 | - | - | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nic Newman | BPR | 6.9 | - | - | 91% | 82% | 68% | 53% | 38% | 9.0 |
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 6.6 | - | - | 90% | 79% | 65% | 49% | 35% | 7.0 |
| Harry McKay | CHF | 6.5 | - | - | 89% | 78% | 64% | 48% | 33% | 6.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | BPL | 5.6 | - | - | 81% | 66% | 49% | 33% | 20% | 4.0 |
| Oliver Florent | HBFL | 5.5 | - | - | 80% | 64% | 47% | 31% | 19% | 9.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | INT | 5.0 | - | - | 73% | 56% | 38% | 24% | 13% | 2.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | FF | 4.8 | - | - | 70% | 52% | 35% | 21% | 11% | 4.0 |
| Oliver Hollands | INT | 4.8 | - | - | 71% | 53% | 36% | 22% | 12% | 10.0 |
| Lewis Young | INT | 4.7 | - | - | 69% | 51% | 33% | 20% | 10% | 3.0 |
| Elijah Hollands | WL | 4.6 | - | - | 67% | 48% | 31% | 18% | 9% | 8.0 |
| Matthew Carroll | WR | 4.4 | - | - | 64% | 45% | 28% | 16% | 8% | 6.0 |
| Adam Cerra | INT | 4.2 | - | - | 61% | 42% | 25% | 14% | 7% | 3.0 |
| Will Hayward | HFFL | 4.1 | - | - | 59% | 39% | 23% | 12% | 6% | 2.0 |
| Sam Walsh | R | 4.0 | - | - | 57% | 38% | 22% | 11% | 5% | 3.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFR | 3.8 | - | - | 53% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 8.0 |
| Francis Evans | INT | 3.6 | - | - | 48% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 2.0 |
| George Hewett | RR | 3.6 | - | - | 48% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 6.0 |
| Jordan Boyd | HBFR | 3.6 | - | - | 48% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 7.0 |
| Jagga Smith | FPR | 3.0 | - | - | 36% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 2.9 | - | - | 32% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Talor Byrne | FPL | 2.9 | - | - | 33% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Wade Derksen | CHB | 2.8 | - | - | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 2.4 | - | - | 23% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |