AFL · ROUND 4 · MARVEL STADIUM
North Melbourne v Carlton
Fri 3 Apr 2026, 3:15pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
CAR by 1
CAR to win, 52% chance
NM 48%52% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 10
MISS Actual margin 10 · 11.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Wardlaw | INT | 4.6 | - | - | 84% | 67% | 49% | 31% | 18% | 11.0 |
| Harry Sheezel | R | 4.4 | - | - | 82% | 64% | 45% | 28% | 16% | 2.0 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | RR | 4.3 | - | - | 80% | 62% | 43% | 26% | 14% | 6.0 |
| Tom Powell | C | 3.6 | - | - | 70% | 48% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 4.0 |
| Luke Parker | INT | 3.4 | - | - | 66% | 44% | 25% | 13% | 6% | 3.0 |
| Paul Curtis | HFFL | 3.3 | - | - | 64% | 42% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 2.7 | - | - | 51% | 29% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 2.5 | - | - | 47% | 25% | 12% | 4% | 2% | 4.0 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | HBFL | 2.4 | - | - | 43% | 22% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 2.2 | - | - | 37% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Jack Darling | FPR | 2.1 | - | - | 35% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 6.0 |
| Zac Banch | INT | 2.1 | - | - | 34% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Colby McKercher | HFFR | 2.0 | - | - | 34% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Callum Coleman-Jones | RK | 1.9 | - | - | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 1.9 | - | - | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 1.9 | - | - | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Luke McDonald | BPL | 1.9 | - | - | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Tom Blamires | HBFR | 1.9 | - | - | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Zane Duursma | INT | 1.9 | - | - | 30% | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Aidan Corr | INT | 1.8 | - | - | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Charlie Comben | BPR | 1.7 | - | - | 25% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 1.7 | - | - | 23% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Toby Pink | FB | 1.6 | - | - | 21% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Cripps | C | 5.0 | - | - | 88% | 74% | 56% | 39% | 24% | 4.0 |
| George Hewett | RR | 4.9 | - | - | 86% | 72% | 53% | 36% | 22% | 7.0 |
| Adam Cerra | INT | 4.5 | - | - | 82% | 66% | 46% | 30% | 17% | 5.0 |
| Sam Walsh | R | 4.1 | - | - | 78% | 59% | 40% | 24% | 12% | 5.0 |
| Nic Newman | BPR | 3.2 | - | - | 63% | 41% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 1.0 |
| Francis Evans | INT | 2.7 | - | - | 50% | 28% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 2.7 | - | - | 50% | 28% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Oliver Hollands | INT | 2.7 | - | - | 50% | 28% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 5.0 |
| Elijah Hollands | WL | 2.3 | - | - | 41% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Jagga Smith | FPR | 2.3 | - | - | 40% | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Will Hayward | HFFL | 2.3 | - | - | 40% | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | BPL | 2.2 | - | - | 37% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFR | 2.0 | - | - | 31% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | FF | 2.0 | - | - | 33% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Oliver Florent | HBFL | 2.0 | - | - | 31% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Wade Derksen | CHB | 2.0 | - | - | 31% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Harry McKay | CHF | 1.9 | - | - | 30% | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Jordan Boyd | HBFR | 1.9 | - | - | 30% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 5.0 |
| Matthew Carroll | WR | 1.9 | - | - | 28% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Talor Byrne | FPL | 1.9 | - | - | 30% | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Lewis Young | INT | 1.6 | - | - | 22% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | INT | 1.6 | - | - | 23% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 6.0 |
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 1.5 | - | - | 20% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |