AFL · ROUND 4 · MCG
Richmond v Port Adelaide
Sat 4 Apr 2026, 4:15pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
PA by 8
PA to win, 62% chance
RIC 38%62% PA
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
PA by 42
HIT Actual margin 42 · 33.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Taranto | RR | 26.6 | - | - | 99% | 92% | 65% | 28% | 7% | 20.0 |
| Jacob Hopper | R | 25.9 | - | - | 99% | 90% | 59% | 23% | 5% | 22.0 |
| Jayden Short | CHB | 23.3 | - | - | 97% | 78% | 39% | 10% | 1% | 22.0 |
| Sam Banks | HBFL | 22.8 | - | - | 97% | 75% | 35% | 9% | 1% | 20.0 |
| Jack Ross | CHF | 22.7 | - | - | 96% | 74% | 34% | 8% | 1% | 15.0 |
| Dion Prestia | C | 21.2 | - | - | 93% | 63% | 23% | 4% | 0% | 24.0 |
| Kane McAuliffe | WL | 18.8 | - | - | 84% | 42% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFR | 18.4 | - | - | 82% | 38% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Tyler Sonsie | WR | 16.7 | - | - | 70% | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 20.0 |
| Luke Trainor | BPR | 15.5 | - | - | 59% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Sam Grlj | INT | 14.9 | - | - | 52% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 19.0 |
| Seth Campbell | HFFL | 14.6 | - | - | 49% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Sam Lalor | FF | 13.6 | - | - | 39% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 13.5 | - | - | 37% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 19.0 |
| Liam Fawcett | INT | 13.4 | - | - | 36% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Nathan Broad | INT | 13.1 | - | - | 34% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Tom Brown | BPL | 13.1 | - | - | 34% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Samson Ryan | RK | 9.9 | - | - | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Maurice Rioli | INT | 9.4 | - | - | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Campbell Gray | INT | 9.2 | - | - | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Steely Green | HFFR | 8.9 | - | - | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Jonty Faull | FPL | 8.6 | - | - | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6.0 |
| Mykelti Lefau | FPR | 7.8 | - | - | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.0 |
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Butters | RR | 30.7 | - | - | 100% | 98% | 87% | 57% | 24% | 30.0 |
| Ollie Wines | INT | 24.6 | - | - | 98% | 85% | 49% | 16% | 3% | 11.0 |
| Kane Farrell | HBFR | 21.6 | - | - | 94% | 66% | 26% | 5% | 0% | 24.0 |
| Willem Drew | R | 21.3 | - | - | 94% | 64% | 24% | 4% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 20.8 | - | - | 92% | 60% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | BPL | 18.4 | - | - | 82% | 38% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 23.0 |
| Miles Bergman | BPR | 18.3 | - | - | 81% | 38% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Logan Evans | HBFL | 17.0 | - | - | 72% | 26% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Jack Watkins | INT | 16.9 | - | - | 71% | 26% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Ewan Mackinlay | WL | 16.3 | - | - | 66% | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 15.7 | - | - | 61% | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 14.6 | - | - | 49% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 23.0 |
| Jacob Wehr | WR | 14.1 | - | - | 44% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 14.0 | - | - | 44% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Lachie Jones | FB | 13.0 | - | - | 33% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Mitch Zadow | INT | 13.0 | - | - | 33% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | FPL | 12.8 | - | - | 30% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 26.0 |
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 12.1 | - | - | 24% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Jack Lukosius | HFFL | 11.4 | - | - | 18% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Corey Durdin | INT | 11.3 | - | - | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 11.1 | - | - | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Josh Lai | INT | 10.7 | - | - | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 9.0 | - | - | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |