AFL · ROUND 4 · MCG
Richmond v Port Adelaide
Sat 4 Apr 2026, 4:15pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
PA by 8
PA to win, 62% chance
RIC 38%62% PA
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
PA by 42
HIT Actual margin 42 · 33.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Taranto | RR | 96 | - | - | 89% | 78% | 62% | 43% | 26% | 68 |
| Jayden Short | CHB | 90 | - | - | 82% | 68% | 50% | 31% | 17% | 98 |
| Jack Ross | CHF | 87 | - | - | 79% | 63% | 44% | 27% | 14% | 64 |
| Jacob Hopper | R | 86 | - | - | 77% | 60% | 42% | 25% | 12% | 53 |
| Sam Banks | HBFL | 85 | - | - | 76% | 59% | 41% | 24% | 12% | 72 |
| Dion Prestia | C | 77 | - | - | 64% | 45% | 28% | 14% | 6% | 96 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFR | 75 | - | - | 60% | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 34 |
| Kane McAuliffe | WL | 68 | - | - | 47% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 75 |
| Seth Campbell | HFFL | 65 | - | - | 40% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 50 |
| Tyler Sonsie | WR | 65 | - | - | 40% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 77 |
| Samson Ryan | RK | 62 | - | - | 35% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 40 |
| Sam Lalor | FF | 60 | - | - | 32% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 62 |
| Luke Trainor | BPR | 59 | - | - | 31% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 62 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 58 | - | - | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 88 |
| Tom Brown | BPL | 58 | - | - | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 30 |
| Sam Grlj | INT | 57 | - | - | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 74 |
| Nathan Broad | INT | 56 | - | - | 25% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 39 |
| Liam Fawcett | INT | 54 | - | - | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 59 |
| Campbell Gray | INT | 52 | - | - | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 72 |
| Jonty Faull | FPL | 50 | - | - | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 29 |
| Maurice Rioli | INT | 49 | - | - | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 46 |
| Mykelti Lefau | FPR | 48 | - | - | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 34 |
| Steely Green | HFFR | 44 | - | - | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 77 |
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Butters | RR | 107 | - | - | 96% | 90% | 78% | 62% | 44% | 84 |
| Ollie Wines | INT | 87 | - | - | 79% | 64% | 45% | 28% | 14% | 35 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 86 | - | - | 78% | 62% | 43% | 26% | 13% | 81 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 86 | - | - | 78% | 61% | 43% | 26% | 13% | 98 |
| Willem Drew | R | 82 | - | - | 72% | 54% | 36% | 20% | 10% | 58 |
| Kane Farrell | HBFR | 78 | - | - | 65% | 46% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 79 |
| Miles Bergman | BPR | 78 | - | - | 65% | 47% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 51 |
| Jase Burgoyne | BPL | 73 | - | - | 55% | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 71 |
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 70 | - | - | 51% | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 59 |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 67 | - | - | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 77 |
| Jack Watkins | INT | 65 | - | - | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 21 |
| Logan Evans | HBFL | 65 | - | - | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 49 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 64 | - | - | 39% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 79 |
| Ewan Mackinlay | WL | 63 | - | - | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 31 |
| Jack Lukosius | HFFL | 62 | - | - | 36% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 71 |
| Corey Durdin | INT | 58 | - | - | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 42 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | FPL | 58 | - | - | 29% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 107 |
| Jacob Wehr | WR | 55 | - | - | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 52 |
| Lachie Jones | FB | 53 | - | - | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 47 |
| Mitch Zadow | INT | 52 | - | - | 19% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 31 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 49 | - | - | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 49 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 46 | - | - | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 63 |
| Josh Lai | INT | 45 | - | - | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 52 |