AFL · ROUND 4 · MCG
Richmond v Port Adelaide
Sat 4 Apr 2026, 4:15pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
PA by 8
PA to win, 62% chance
RIC 38%62% PA
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
PA by 42
HIT Actual margin 42 · 33.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seth Campbell | HFFL | 1.2 | - | - | 69% | 32% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Jonty Faull | FPL | 1.1 | - | - | 66% | 29% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Mykelti Lefau | FPR | 1.0 | - | - | 63% | 26% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Sam Lalor | FF | 0.8 | - | - | 54% | 18% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Steely Green | HFFR | 0.7 | - | - | 49% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Liam Fawcett | INT | 0.6 | - | - | 46% | 13% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Dion Prestia | C | 0.5 | - | - | 40% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Maurice Rioli | INT | 0.5 | - | - | 39% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Samson Ryan | RK | 0.4 | - | - | 35% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Tim Taranto | RR | 0.4 | - | - | 34% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jack Ross | CHF | 0.3 | - | - | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jacob Hopper | R | 0.3 | - | - | 25% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Kane McAuliffe | WL | 0.3 | - | - | 27% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Tyler Sonsie | WR | 0.3 | - | - | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Campbell Gray | INT | 0.1 | - | - | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jayden Short | CHB | 0.1 | - | - | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Luke Trainor | BPR | 0.1 | - | - | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Sam Banks | HBFL | 0.1 | - | - | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Sam Grlj | INT | 0.1 | - | - | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Tom Brown | BPL | 0.1 | - | - | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 0.0 | - | - | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Nathan Broad | INT | 0.0 | - | - | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFR | 0.0 | - | - | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 2.9 | - | - | 95% | 79% | 56% | 34% | 17% | 2.0 |
| Jack Lukosius | HFFL | 1.8 | - | - | 84% | 55% | 28% | 12% | 4% | 2.0 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 1.4 | - | - | 75% | 41% | 17% | 5% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 1.3 | - | - | 72% | 37% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Corey Durdin | INT | 1.2 | - | - | 70% | 34% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 1.1 | - | - | 66% | 29% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | FPL | 0.7 | - | - | 50% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jack Watkins | INT | 0.7 | - | - | 49% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 0.7 | - | - | 49% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Mitch Zadow | INT | 0.6 | - | - | 44% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Zak Butters | RR | 0.5 | - | - | 41% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Ewan Mackinlay | WL | 0.4 | - | - | 34% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 0.4 | - | - | 30% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Josh Lai | INT | 0.4 | - | - | 33% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Miles Bergman | BPR | 0.4 | - | - | 32% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Willem Drew | R | 0.4 | - | - | 36% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | BPL | 0.3 | - | - | 26% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jacob Wehr | WR | 0.2 | - | - | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Ollie Wines | INT | 0.2 | - | - | 22% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Kane Farrell | HBFR | 0.1 | - | - | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Lachie Jones | FB | 0.1 | - | - | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Logan Evans | HBFL | 0.1 | - | - | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 0.0 | - | - | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |