AFL · ROUND 4 · MCG
Richmond v Port Adelaide
Sat 4 Apr 2026, 4:15pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
PA by 8
PA to win, 62% chance
RIC 38%62% PA
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
PA by 42
HIT Actual margin 42 · 33.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Short | CHB | 6.9 | - | - | 92% | 82% | 69% | 54% | 39% | 6.0 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 6.4 | - | - | 88% | 76% | 62% | 46% | 31% | 11.0 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFR | 6.0 | - | - | 85% | 71% | 55% | 39% | 26% | 0.0 |
| Nathan Broad | INT | 5.7 | - | - | 82% | 67% | 50% | 34% | 21% | 5.0 |
| Sam Banks | HBFL | 5.2 | - | - | 76% | 59% | 42% | 27% | 16% | 1.0 |
| Tom Brown | BPL | 4.9 | - | - | 72% | 54% | 36% | 22% | 12% | 1.0 |
| Jack Ross | CHF | 3.8 | - | - | 53% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 2.0 |
| Luke Trainor | BPR | 3.7 | - | - | 50% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 4% | 5.0 |
| Tyler Sonsie | WR | 3.7 | - | - | 51% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 4% | 6.0 |
| Dion Prestia | C | 3.6 | - | - | 49% | 30% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 6.0 |
| Kane McAuliffe | WL | 3.5 | - | - | 47% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 5.0 |
| Sam Grlj | INT | 3.5 | - | - | 47% | 28% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 5.0 |
| Jonty Faull | FPL | 3.4 | - | - | 44% | 25% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Seth Campbell | HFFL | 3.3 | - | - | 42% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Tim Taranto | RR | 3.2 | - | - | 39% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Jacob Hopper | R | 3.1 | - | - | 38% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Mykelti Lefau | FPR | 3.1 | - | - | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 4.0 |
| Campbell Gray | INT | 3.0 | - | - | 35% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 7.0 |
| Sam Lalor | FF | 3.0 | - | - | 35% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 5.0 |
| Liam Fawcett | INT | 2.8 | - | - | 31% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 5.0 |
| Samson Ryan | RK | 2.8 | - | - | 31% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Maurice Rioli | INT | 2.5 | - | - | 23% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Steely Green | HFFR | 2.2 | - | - | 18% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 3.0 |
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 6.7 | - | - | 90% | 80% | 66% | 50% | 35% | 8.0 |
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 5.2 | - | - | 76% | 59% | 42% | 26% | 15% | 6.0 |
| Kane Farrell | HBFR | 5.0 | - | - | 73% | 56% | 38% | 24% | 13% | 3.0 |
| Miles Bergman | BPR | 5.0 | - | - | 74% | 56% | 38% | 24% | 13% | 5.0 |
| Jack Lukosius | HFFL | 4.7 | - | - | 70% | 51% | 34% | 20% | 11% | 6.0 |
| Logan Evans | HBFL | 4.4 | - | - | 64% | 44% | 28% | 15% | 8% | 5.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | BPL | 4.3 | - | - | 62% | 42% | 26% | 14% | 7% | 4.0 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 4.1 | - | - | 59% | 40% | 23% | 12% | 6% | 7.0 |
| Lachie Jones | FB | 4.0 | - | - | 56% | 37% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 3.0 |
| Zak Butters | RR | 3.9 | - | - | 55% | 36% | 20% | 10% | 5% | 4.0 |
| Corey Durdin | INT | 3.5 | - | - | 46% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 4.0 |
| Ewan Mackinlay | WL | 3.5 | - | - | 46% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1.0 |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 3.5 | - | - | 47% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 4.0 |
| Jacob Wehr | WR | 3.4 | - | - | 44% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Ollie Wines | INT | 3.3 | - | - | 42% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | FPL | 3.2 | - | - | 39% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 10.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 3.1 | - | - | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 5.0 |
| Jack Watkins | INT | 3.0 | - | - | 36% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 3.0 | - | - | 35% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Josh Lai | INT | 2.9 | - | - | 32% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 5.0 |
| Mitch Zadow | INT | 2.8 | - | - | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Willem Drew | R | 2.7 | - | - | 29% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 2.3 | - | - | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 5.0 |