AFL · ROUND 4 · MCG
Richmond v Port Adelaide
Sat 4 Apr 2026, 4:15pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
PA by 8
PA to win, 62% chance
RIC 38%62% PA
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
PA by 42
HIT Actual margin 42 · 33.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Taranto | RR | 5.0 | - | - | 88% | 74% | 56% | 39% | 24% | 4.0 |
| Jack Ross | CHF | 4.5 | - | - | 82% | 66% | 46% | 30% | 17% | 6.0 |
| Kane McAuliffe | WL | 3.5 | - | - | 67% | 46% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 4.0 |
| Dion Prestia | C | 3.3 | - | - | 65% | 43% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 3.0 |
| Maurice Rioli | INT | 3.2 | - | - | 62% | 40% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 2.0 |
| Jacob Hopper | R | 3.1 | - | - | 61% | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 0.0 |
| Sam Lalor | FF | 2.6 | - | - | 49% | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Seth Campbell | HFFL | 2.6 | - | - | 47% | 26% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Steely Green | HFFR | 2.3 | - | - | 39% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 6.0 |
| Mykelti Lefau | FPR | 2.2 | - | - | 38% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Sam Banks | HBFL | 2.2 | - | - | 38% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Luke Trainor | BPR | 2.1 | - | - | 34% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFR | 2.1 | - | - | 35% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Sam Grlj | INT | 2.1 | - | - | 34% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Samson Ryan | RK | 2.1 | - | - | 36% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Tyler Sonsie | WR | 2.1 | - | - | 34% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Campbell Gray | INT | 2.0 | - | - | 32% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 5.0 |
| Jonty Faull | FPL | 2.0 | - | - | 32% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Liam Fawcett | INT | 2.0 | - | - | 31% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Tom Brown | BPL | 1.9 | - | - | 28% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jayden Short | CHB | 1.8 | - | - | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Nathan Broad | INT | 1.8 | - | - | 27% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 1.7 | - | - | 24% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem Drew | R | 5.3 | - | - | 90% | 78% | 62% | 44% | 29% | 6.0 |
| Zak Butters | RR | 5.0 | - | - | 88% | 74% | 56% | 39% | 24% | 0.0 |
| Ollie Wines | INT | 4.4 | - | - | 82% | 64% | 45% | 28% | 16% | 2.0 |
| Miles Bergman | BPR | 3.7 | - | - | 72% | 51% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 1.0 |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 3.1 | - | - | 60% | 38% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 3.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 3.1 | - | - | 60% | 38% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 4.0 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 2.9 | - | - | 56% | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 2.0 |
| Jacob Wehr | WR | 2.6 | - | - | 48% | 26% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | BPL | 2.6 | - | - | 48% | 26% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | FPL | 2.5 | - | - | 47% | 25% | 12% | 4% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Kane Farrell | HBFR | 2.4 | - | - | 42% | 22% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Ewan Mackinlay | WL | 2.3 | - | - | 40% | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Jack Watkins | INT | 2.3 | - | - | 40% | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 2.3 | - | - | 40% | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Corey Durdin | INT | 2.0 | - | - | 32% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 2.0 | - | - | 32% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Logan Evans | HBFL | 2.0 | - | - | 31% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Mitch Zadow | INT | 2.0 | - | - | 31% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 5.0 |
| Jack Lukosius | HFFL | 1.9 | - | - | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Josh Lai | INT | 1.9 | - | - | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Lachie Jones | FB | 1.8 | - | - | 28% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 1.8 | - | - | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 1.6 | - | - | 22% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |